Tag: Egypt

Striking a Balance for Egypt’s Society

On By davb.deIn Egypt1 Comment

You hear more and more Egyptian citizens and foreign analysts going down the same notch: The government is incompetent, setting the wrong priorities and lavish with borrowed money building Cloud cuckoo homes while filling their own pockets.

Is that so? I absolutely don’t think so. But the style of governing hasn’t changed much.

I would like to take a recent outcry exemplifying how statehood is still understood by the government, 10 years after the revolution on June 30th, which promised a grave change of every aspect of life and gave hope to participation in decision making.

Egypt, well known for ancient history and architectural wonders, is currently, among other challenges, facing the consequences of rapid development.

The recent demolition of historic tombs in Cairo’s Mamluk Qarafa area, known as the ‘City of the Dead’, has sparked renewed outrage among archaeologists, experts, and the public. This controversial decision, made in the name of progress, while Egypt is grappling with rising inflation, which further strain the economy and its citizens.

‘The government prioritizes infrastructure over heritage to serve all Egyptians.’

But among those Egyptians, who are offended by this policy style are the ones carrying a huge part of the financial burden caused by the decision makers.    

                  The destruction of historic tombs in Cairo’s Mamluk Qarafa area, which holds an immense historical and architectural value, making it an integral part of Egypt’s heritage has put disgruntled citizens on the map, who did not hold back their anger: ‘Why are the tombs of famous and historical figures not preserved and restored and turned into shrines for lovers of history and culture?’ “Other countries are trying to purchase history,” popular television presenter Lamees El Hadidi decried, “We already have history, and we’re choosing to bulldoze it?!”

Despite opposition from institutions such as Al-Azhar and experts, the Ministry of Housing approved the demolition.

The decision to demolish these tombs as part of a bridge-building project raised questions about the intellectual integrity of those in charge of the decision and responsible for the preservation of Egypt’s cultural identity and respect for the dead. ‘Famous and historical figures, who rested in peace for fourteen centuries are now being desecrated by culturally illiterates.’

Would it not have served the self-understanding of Egypt’s citizenry and moreover promoted the relevance of Egypt’s intellectuals better, if, at the time the idea came up, a cultural dialog with the interested public would have been called into life? Discussing the project from many angles and aspects with the results being published and reaching the relevant ministries? Inviting the responsible governmental bodies to take part in these discussions?

The Impact of Governing over People’s Heads

The destruction of historic tombs, the impact of the inflation and the poor communication policy from the side of the government has added to questioning major projects of Egypt’s development plan altogether. People who share the governments’ enthusiasm about the projects concluded and those in progress seem more and more to circle around those benefiting in one way or another from them.

The official figures of inflation do not fully capture the true extent of price increases, as street markets and grocery stores often reflect even steeper price hikes. The ongoing war in Ukraine and its impact on global food and energy prices have added heavily to the economic hardships faced by Egyptian citizens.

The burden falls heavily particularly on those from lower-income households. Yet measures to mitigate the impact of inflation, leading to i.e., skyrocketing food prices have on the poor, have hit the middle class hardest, because to balance the withdrawal of price subsidies out, with a significant portion of Egyptians living in poverty, the middle class is designated to pay for the escalating prices, thus hampering their ability to maintain their previous standard of living. Some might have to withdraw their children from schools or universities. “My wife and I were considering having another child, but after the recent price hikes, we’ll forget about it.” The new reality has driven families that were considered part of the middle class to seek help.

         In the early years of the then new government there was a spirit of optimism and the ability for financial undertakings. People had options.

In November 2016 the IMF approved the three-year, $12 billion loan to support the government’s home-grown comprehensive economic reform plan. One major condition for the loan agreement was: Egypt had to float its currency. This led to the grave devaluation of the Egyptian pound from an official rate of around LE9 to the dollar to around LE15 to allow for increased Egyptian exports. This was the first big blow to the social fabric, Egyptians had to endure.

          Consequently, the spirit has weakened considerably. Not that the people don’t believe in these projects anymore. But people are clearly realizing that the desired extent of modernization will indeed require the sacrifice of an entire generation. The president said this, when he took office.  

At the National Youth Conference in Alexandria a few days ago President Sisi said “We have been in a crisis for three years [since outbreak of COVID-19]…It slowed our progress…It caused price hikes…Yet, the population increased by 6 million…We also have nine million refugees and migrants…Further, in the past nine weeks, 120,000 crossed into Egypt from Sudan.”

Speaking to new cadets at the Military Academy, Al-Sisi said it is not Egypt alone that has been going through economic crises over the past three years, noting that the entire world economy was facing a sharp decline which, unfortunately, is not expected to end soon. Developing countries like Egypt continued to have difficulties attracting investors who are uncertain about where the world economy is heading.

On June 14th President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has ruled out another devaluation of the Egyptian Pound in the near future, obviously as a response to a broadening sense of uncertainty and frustration among the people. But, addressing criticism related to megaprojects he shouldn’t have said: “Should I leave people stuck on the roads or living in tin homes [shanty towns] or allow food to be a little more expensive,” While certainly most Egyptians from every background agree the need of these massive housing projects, downplaying current prices with ‘a little more expensive” is like a slap in the face to people, who are struggling. Meat prices have doubled, yet salaries have remained the same. Egypt is ahead of Eid-al-Adha, where consuming meat is almost a religious duty.

While foreign investors need to build confidence into Egypt’s economy, there is also a need for the government to build confidence into the country’s thought leaders and intellectuals. Will the government jump over its shadow and incorporate the intellectual potential of its citizens into suitable projects for decision-making processes?

Egypt experienced more historic turning points than most countries and can certainly navigate current challenges and move towards a sustainable and culturally vibrant future.

“One arrow can easily be broken, but a bundle of ten cannot.”

‘In a sure-fire move that can be expected to usher in Egypt as a full member of the BRICS grouping, Cairo has taken an equity position within the New Development Bank (NDB).‘

On January 23, 2023, the House of Representatives approved the President of the Arab Republic of Egypt’s decision No. 628 of 2022 regarding an agreement that allows Egypt to officially join the New Development Bank (NDB) to be set up by the BRICS economic group. According to Mohamed Abdel-Hamid, vice chairman of the economic committee of the Egyptian parliament, Egypt gains from joining the BRICS and its development bank.

The NDB previously received an ‘AA+’ international credit rating from Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings, allowing it to effectively attract long-term funding on international and local capital markets.

Intra-BRICS trade reached US$162 billion in 2022, attracting the attention of multiple other countries, if accepted, the new proposed BRICS members would create an entity with a GDP 30% larger than the United States, over 50% of the global population and in control of 60% of global gas reserves. 

The US and the EU leverage their economic might to put their foreign policy objectives through. Sanctions are being imposed on nations that don’t share those objectives. The EU as well as the USA thus have major influence over other economies, and this is not least due to the dominance of the dollar’s position in the global economy. The euro ranks second.

To lessen their reliance on the US dollar and the Euro, the BRICS countries have already shifted to using their own local currencies. A shared payment network is one of the financial infrastructure projects being undertaken by BRICS. In this context, Egypt’s accession to the BRICS group only strengthens what economists label the ‘dedollarization drive’.

Remember, to name an example, that as of January this year, Russia’s central bank has added among nine other currencies the Egyptian Pound to its list of exchange rates.

Russia and Egypt have been conducting trade dealings in both of their local currencies since September last year. This was due to the Western sanctions put on Russia after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February, leading both Egypt and Russia to resort to using the pound or the ruble in trade exchange.  

Russia is an important trade partner for Egypt, because i.e. imports of wheat and oils from Moscow of high quality are available at reasonable prices.

Egypt accessing the BRICS group and dealing in the BRICS currency will contribute significantly to reducing the demand for the US dollar, especially since the US is not Egypt’s largest trading partner.

Egypt as an additional member to NDB is an excellent strategic move for both sides. – Not only will it give strength to BRICS trading, regarding the country’s size, but it also will help Egypt to strengthening trade exchange agreements with the BRICS countries and help to reduce an overly high demand of US dollars to supply the country’s imports.

Additionally, offering a series of technological projects to the BRICS countries through the NDB is expected to stimulate Egypt’s exports. Russia, for example, already has a manufacturing Free Trade Zone in Port Said, near the Suez Canal, as does China.

Foreign direct investment and the value of bilateral trade between the BRIC countries and African countries are growing.

South Africa currently heads the BRICS countries and will host the next summit in August. Plans are to advance the interests of Africa and partnership with key players. Egypt and South Africa are members of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the world’s largest free trade area bringing together 55 countries of the African Union (AU) and eight (8) Regional Economic Communities (RECs) to create a single market for the continent, inhabited by 1.3 billion people representing a 3.4 trillion Dollar market. And Egypt will use the upcoming summit to her advantage.

During South Africa’s BRICS Presidency, Cairo is placing its new membership in the BRICS under more consideration by using the “BRICS and Africa” program, together with the presence of BRICS in AfCFTA and especially in the development of infrastructure, and sustainable development.

As much as first, the Covid19 issue and now the proxy-war in the Ukraine interrupted and impacts the gearbox of the global economy, as much it has done a big service to reconsider alliances and partnerships.

However, it is leaving its marks on Egypt’s economy. The Egyptian Pound underwent a 50 percent devaluation, leading to stark increases of prices for as well basic consumer goods and energy, associated with great renunciation especially of that stratum of society less favored by financial resources.  Naturally, successfully established industrial projects are often being perceived as irrelevant, unless it comes with individual advantage, likewise are infrastructure projects being dismissed as superfluous. And the perennial favorite for critics, the New Capital, provides plenty of talking points, partly because of a lack imagination. (Yes, property there is expensive, yet there are people who are buying and it takes time.)

The World Bank has also revised down last week its forecasts for Egypt’s real GDP growth in the current FY2022/2023, which runs through the end of June, and FY2023/2024 to four percent in each of these two fiscal years, down from 4.5 percent it projected in December of 2022.

BRICS is all about allowing the “voices of the marginalized to actually be heard” President of SE, Cyril Ramaphosa.

While BRICS countries account for 25 percent of the global economy, 18 percent of global trade, and over 50 percent of global growth, the voting right of BRICS countries in both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund is only less than 15 percent.

South Africa’s gradual plan for Egypt to fully join BRICS (in August 2023) should be put through.

One could think of Egypt becoming a full member of the BRICS states has become a matter of wishful thinking owed to the obstacles in a world that feels less certain.

Opportunities will arise.

On By davb.deIn EgyptLeave a comment

November 8th casts its shadows on Egypt

On By davb.deIn Egypt, The Evolving Revolution2 Comments

The elected president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, who won his office in an internationally monitored election with an overwhelming majority of votes back in 2014 must have been planning a lot of things right.

Why else would some news outlets gear up recently, bashing the president as if there were no government, with fierce vileness obviously attempting to break down solidarity and consent within the Egyptian population, trying to make the country look like ruled by just one person,  and  most probably hoping to shy away small investors by blurring the big picture for the president’s massive reform visions and reform programs already in progress, intended to push Egypt out of that petty orbit of dysfunctional, corrupt state institutions, it’s been circling onto in reverse ever since the ‘glorious revolution’ of 1952?

 

Here is one of those pieces mentioned above [http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/sisi-dead-man-walking-161590827]

I stumbled over it by chance on a friends face-book site. It sums up the propaganda counter-narrative on Egypt. Its purpose is not to report or inform its readership, but to draw the readers into believing the country is close to collapse, which according to their arbitrarily picked random facts,  interpreted in jolly distortion, would be  just a question of a few months.

While this publication, Middle East Eye [MEE], purports to be journalistic in nature, already the headline “Sisi is a dead man walking  #EgyptTurmoil” with this added hash tag begs the question: for whom does this still qualify as journalism?

(Behind the MEE is a senior executive with Qatar’s TV network Al Jazeera, who was closely involved with setting up the London news website Middle East Eye, some of whose staff have links to organizations sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood. [http://www.thenational.ae/uae/al-jazeera-executive-helped-to-launch-controversial-uk-website])

 

President Al-Sisi caught my attention and gained my respect for his integrity. Contrary to his opponents and related news-outlets: Al-Sisi has never made a promise he couldn’t or cannot keep. It is however important to pay attention to what he says.

When he projected the New Suez Canal extension in late 2013, the world had been a slightly different place. While the ‘Arab-Spring’ had been in ‘full blossom’, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and even Egypt had not yet to confront, what we all came to know as, the Caliphate of ‘the Islamic State’.

Most criticism with focus on ‘Sisi’s failed economies’ cling to the Suez Canal, as revenues were below anticipated gains. Who in 2013 and 2014 could actually foresee the sharpest decline in world trade activities since 2009 http://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=1230, in parts related to an existential grown battle of antagonistic economical concepts – The New Silk Road vs TTIP http://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/ttip-has-a-greater-global-impact-than-tpp/? – In 2015 the dollar value of world merchandise exports declined by 14%, to US$ 16.0 trillion, as export prices fell by 15%. The dollar value of world commercial services exports also fell 6%in 2015 to US$ 4,754 billion, although the decline was less severe than for merchandise.

An in addition (as a side note) the regional advantage, i.e. Turkey would take from the ‘Islamic State’ oil trade and subsequently the complete overhaul of the whole oil market price scheme: how foreseeable had that been?

 

Improvements in Egypt‘s political stability over the time alone won’t suffice to alleviate ongoing concerns within the investors-community about the stability of the business climate in the Middle East in general as they are part and parcel of the international investment community, relying on protection where protection can be granted. – War zones carry high risks.

 

While Egypt has proved its ability, to restore law and order, and a safety in the streets I know from before 2011, there still is the looming threat, every now and then  pushed into the limelight and magnified by pundits (to justify their positions in related think-tanks I suppose), feeding into [what I call] the ‘Western Powers Caliphate Dream’, that had been harshly rejected by the people of and for Egypt through their standing up to maintain their country’s national integrity on June 30th 2013, leading to the ouster of then president Morsi, against having this very integrity taken away from the Washington fancied rule of the Muslimbrotherhood, whose predominant political establishment, as public knowledge in Egypt has it, envisions the Middle East more or less as an Entity of Islamic States, led by Sheikhs, Mullahs and Emirs. Thus the Obama administration’s relentless support, covertly and openly, for the Brotherhood, and their firm rejection, to declare the network of useful Islamists  a terror-organization.

 

While in 2011 static minds pondered the ‘unlikely’ but not impossible ‘closure of the Suez Canal’ http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/egypt/suez-canal.htm, in 2014  Alsisi made his bet on the future. https://miskelayla.wordpress.com/2015/08/10/inside-egypt-the-suez-canal-the-stubborn-reality/. He projected to upgrade the Suez Canal from a mere shipping lane to a major hub of the Middle East’s shipping industry, with all related projects and industries. Computer science & shipping academies and Fish farms, maintenance firms and housing, to, in addition, structurally support the creation of a process, to decentralize the country, where still ‘everybody’ wants to live in ‘Egypt’ [as locals call the capital Cairo] or has to go to ‘Egypt’ for major administrative paper works.

 

The MEE article opens with a quote, misleadingly presented as a leak: “You want to be a first-class nation? Will you bear it if I make you walk on your own feet? When I wake you up at five in the morning every day? Will you bear cutting back on food, cutting back on air-conditioners? …People think I’m a soft man, Sisi is torture and suffering.” Fact is: this statement was on national TV and has cemented the trust, most people still have in the president, contrary to what certain new-outlets want the people to believe. The Egyptians reaction to Al-Sisi’s campaign-speech: Finally not a ‘kalamangi’ [=a person talking empty] but someone, who takes people and political process seriously plus (and that’s important!!) he has a sense of humor. ‘Sisi is torture & suffering’ is clearly connoted to the deprivations, the economical reforms will put especially the vast majority of people through, who enjoy relatively financial stability and can plan their lives accordingly, whereas the low income groups merely make it through the week.

 

The piece goes on with depicting Al-Sisi as a phony featherhead, humping from one economical adventure to the next, dotted dottled insinuations about their favorite narrative ‘The Military Coup’ while steadfastly ignoring that, which happened in Egypt in 2013 had been a people’s coup, assisted by the military, and giving  major infrastructural achievements, reinstating electricity, providing steady and reliable fuel and gas supplies, and housing projects related to evasion of slums not one single mention.

 

The investment summit in Sharm El-Sheikh is another example. Contrary to bashing pieces, the summit has been very successful. Some of the projects are already work-in-progress, while others are fighting against the bureaucracy and the regulations of the General Investment Authorities [GAFI], since parts of vital regulations changed during the Muslimbrotherhood’s Morsi tenure. The GAFI is now in a thorough rules & regulations adjustment process, hence it takes longer than one would hope for under the pressure of circumstances [= in need of investment]

The government itself has given certain projects a special legislative framework to bypass their own obnoxiously slow and hindering bureaucratic machinery. Not surprisingly, it has taken months to get parliamentarians to support the civil-servant-law to be adjusted to the needs of a modern state, citizenry and economy, rather than tolerating automated promotions and granted rewards.

And it has been this omission of crucial, sometimes only subtle differences, that shapes that part of the opposition narrative, which is unconstructive and merely intends to stir dissatisfaction, if not hoping for turmoil.

 

What hardly anyone finds important to mention: the whole new Egyptian economical agenda 2030.  Have a look at ‘The Golden Triangle’ project.  http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/15610/18/A-golden-opportunity-.aspx Having witnessed, what this government under president Al-Sisi has already accomplished through imposing a deadline-honoring system, I have not the slightest cast of doubt, The Golden Triangle will be pursued with the same efficiency.

Frequently I’m having conversations with young professionals and students. I find it interesting to hear their views on the state-of-the-country, as from them I can indulge in sometimes diametrically different views from mine on most economical related issues. Form some, all I hear is gloom & doom. I assume they are collecting ‘evidence’ as they intend to leave Egypt. If someone would listen to our conversations, they wouldn’t be able to think we’d be talking about the same country. Their case goes like this: ‘90% of all business is in the pockets of the army. People are being incarcerated, once they speak up. The government is stealing the tax money.’- Obviously  hacks have a readership.
Others are cautiously optimistic and trusting. Most don’t seem to care about politics; once the ‘Muslimbrotherhood-rule-experiment’ was over, the aftermath showed  the intention and driving forces translating into a clear message: ‘you have been toyed with’. That then has led largely to a politically disaffected Youth. Muslimbrotherhood sympathizers and socialists are however given interpretative authority, as they are airing ‘knowledge’, and reading books has not yet found back its way into academia. The political establishment has yet to convince the ‘ordinary youth’, that a revolution is not about rivers-of-blood in the streets, but about accelerating change through action. – Convincing then through visible action.-

I expect this aspect of inspiring through actions to get more focus in the new parliamentary term.

Hence crucial issues and mega projects are being found seen as ‘megalomaniac’ to cement and justify the endeavor of emigration, or frustration about the revolution’s outcome and social in-justice or complaints about the system in general.

I find it ironic though, that all steadfastly ignore that “Egypt’s economic growth [is about] pro-poor”. Though related to 2015, this is a programmatic statement about Egypt’s economic path. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/119225/Business/Economy/Egypts-economic-growth-in–will-be-propoor-Plannin.aspx

In case that isn’t answered: It’s currently the middle-class, you’ll find complaining the most.

For some families, it’s about the hardship to deny their offspring a handsome pocket-money as the utility bills and other prices are absorbing each and every Pound, they make and receive despite salary increase. Still the traditional North coast holiday – the popular summer exit for Egyptians ever since I’ve heard of it in the late 60-ies as a child from Egyptian family friends – is feasible. But not without making compromises on spending.

‘Grow first, distribute later.’ had been the economic policy guideline during the Mubarak era. Now that has changed into: “we are keen that growth is linked to social justice. First, the nature of the projects is labor-intensive and they require low-skilled workers. Second, the projects are destined to improve the services delivered to the poor, like the new system of food subsidies, or the housing projects destined for those at the lower scale of income, and to improve utilities in poor rural areas, like sewage systems and drinkable water.”

The self-understanding of making steady profits/growths is broken. What seems not have to be yet absorbed is the dimension of that the ‘reforms [are] aiming at social justice’.

– It should be understood, that I’m talking about broad scale understanding.-

Under Mubarak, in the late years as of 2008, the ‘middle-class’ had been talked into being ‘oppressed’ and ‘underprivileged’, while in reality the people yelled about the ‘corrupt dictator Mubarak’ in the streets, middle-class youth bought the newest cell-phones, new outfits every season, travelling abroad in summer was a self-understanding and the elders got one property after another.

The poor, with no voice and being helpless as most can’t even read or write sufficiently to file a complaint or get heard, had been left out. While ‘everyone’ talked about their pity for the poor, for the most, they had been taken advantage of them through making use of the inexpensive services the poor had offered as drivers, in-house-servants, cleaners, caretakers or such.

In a society like Egypt, where social status defines social conduct, the poorest hardly had the heart to speak up.- It is their hour now.

If you follow development programs in Egypt, you will notice: except for replacing slums with decent housing and extending the Underground network substantially, nothing much happens in and around Cairo or Alexandria.

Most development projects are either in Upper Egypt or in the Delta.

Egypt has to fight off a lot of ingrown problems. Some might take generations to get rid of, some only one generation, some only a few years.

One of this problems, weighting Egypt down, is corruption. While I’m not going into details: the IMF loan program is opposed and rejected by a large majority of citizens who engage in politics, and looked at with suspicion by a lot of  un-politicized bystanders.

I see the IMF-loan program in big parts as a mere tool, to confront certain civil servants and private business individuals with a transparency framework, that makes arbitrarily overstepping rules and regulations and under-the-table contracts very difficult, if not impossible.

From my personal perspective, nothing much has changed since I thought: The Future has Begun https://miskelayla.wordpress.com/2016/01/22/the-future-has-begun/. But since I’m having my ears and eyes open I can sense that, as November 8th approaches, the stakes are high and the camps need to make their bets: those who already pledge allegiance for Hillary Clinton as America’s next president might well get rewarded with some Clinton-Foundation-cash. How else is it, that the bashing-Egypt-hacks are back with a new impetus?  It has after all been under secretary Clinton’s foreign policy directive, that the Muslimbrotherhood got promoted into coequal policymakers status, with the support of official western media, who have lost their objectivity and are being perceived  as propaganda tools by all who know, what really happens.

The outcome of the American presidential election will be important for the whole world. From how I perceive Al-Sisi’s carefully planned policy nationally and internationally: Egypt will be prepared for either scenario.

 



			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
The Future Has Begun

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt5 Comments			

					


		

			
Critics  claim that Egypt is bare of freedom. Hence a lot of NGO’s and think tanks have put their effort into (I’m slightly exaggerating) a ‘failed state’ narrative, leading to, that Egypt has been  officially categorized as “autocracy/restricted democracy”.


Critics invoke spinsters from the old past -“Egypt’s state institutions, the oldest in the world, and its political culture, have little tradition of respecting civil liberties. Some periods have been worse than others – the worst was actually under Gamal Abdel-Nasser in the 1950s and ’60s, when many thousands of political prisoners were sent “behind the sun” to camps in the Western Desert.” – and the newer past under Mubarak, when the attempt to rid the public space from radical members of the Muslim Brotherhood who invoked terror had lead the security forces of the Mubarak government  to crack down hard against radical Islamists.


On the foreign media surface, the general mood in Egypt looks like one of a country, that yearns to be liberated into a western-democracy. January 25th 2011, the onset of the Arab Spring in Egypt, had, in my opinion, been planned as an ambitious foreign policy project, fostered by Western governments.


Though the Egyptians could save themselves from the fate of its neighbor countries, ‘the Arab spring’ has chosen to sow the seeds of democracy in the oldest nation. Regretfully few take note of the changes already achieved, the process, which had been initiated by president El-Sisi, to whom most foreign media and local activists openly or secretly relate to as a ‘dictator’ has brought substantial results. Now, with a parliament in place, we might hopefully soon witness a society of participating citizens.


Everyone agrees it still is a very long way to go, until the spirit for a self-determined life in freedom paired with communal obligations can reach out to a majority of people. For now, one will see a more or less disillusioned population, with almost everyone suffering under the economic consequences of a failed Muslim Brotherhood regime. Most activists and think-tankers are suggesting,  that neither social justice nor progress can ever be expected under the current leadership.


An article in a local paper, reflecting opposing views, headlines: “The way issues are being run in Egypt today reminds me of the atmosphere before the 25 of January revolution.” –


Is that really so?


There can be no social justice, progress and building democratic institutions without a solid source of state income and thriving private entrepreneurship.  While this is a truism, the expectation in most Egyptian citizens for instant cure of social ills and instant remedy of justified grievances has been a reality ever since 2011.


While president El-Sisi receives a – comparatively speaking – modest salary, of which he donates half to the ‘Long live Egypt’ fund  [launched in October 2014 by some businessmen, headed by a former Central Bank governor to finance urgent projects],  every post-revolution government has raised the wages of public servants and employees. For a considerable number of recipients, civil servants add up to about seven Million people, the,  nominally low salaries,  had been increased three times. This, together with the minimum salary debates,  has shifted the whole issue of wages payment and expectations further out of touch with work-productivity. But it has prompted the self-understanding,  that offering pre-revolutionary salaries in a private sector job would get you flabbergasted reactions. When El-Sisi started his tenure, one of his first concerns had been to curb this spiral of increasing prices, part of which were owed to raised costs for commodities, the bigger part of the ever up-climbing price-spiral  were self-inflicted.


There is hardly any criticism, which wouldn’t take the chance these days to polemicize [quoting an opposition mainstream sentiment] that “The word revolution implies a profound change in social and political structures, which did not happen.” – A popular slam as well is to point out ‘the futility’ of Egypt’s biggest, already accomplished, national project, the extension of the Suez-Canal, cheering maliciously once revenues fall short of expectations .


 


The historical economical baggage, Egypt is burdened with, goes back to the times of Gamal Abdel Nasser. He failed to care for a flourishing agriculture, the fundament of growth for various industries. While his post-revolution Egyptian Land Reform was an effort to change land ownership practices in Egypt following the 1952 Revolution, the effects of this land reform drew to a halt as the population of Egypt moved away from agriculture.


As it holds still true ‘food is more essential for life than are the services provided by merchants or bankers or factories, an economy cannot shift to such activities unless food is available for barter or sale in sufficient quantities to support those engaged in them’, El-Sisi has given significant priority to develop agriculture.


Shortly after president El-Sisi has taken office, developing  infrastructure and agriculture are on the national development priority list.


The projects discussed after he took office and during the investment summit in March 2015 are being translated into action.


China, Germany, Saudi-Arabia, Russia  and the United Arab Emirates [alphabetical order] lead the long list of countries with companies, who have signed for substantial investment in Egypt.


On December 30th, the plan for the reclamation of 1.5 million feddans of desert land was ‘formally initiated, with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announcing the commencement of the first phase of this latest mega-project‘, due to be completed within two years. The idea is, that small farmers and big investors alike are to be sold plots of land throughout this project – in which owners may purchase expansive tracts of lands, with the state-administered Egyptian Rural Development Company supervising both: sale and distribution of desert lands designated for reclamation. – Given that completion of the second branch of the Suez Canal extension had been initially set for three years, yet it has been operational after only one year, one could assume, this – widely criticized undertaking  too will run on schedule.


Where are we now?


The Prime Ministers’ headline from a local paper a couple of days ago read “Egypt needs 6% growth for the people to feel the effects” doesn’t seem to predict economic relief – given, that nearly none of the average citizen is without financial strain but with a considerable number of people in merely upgraded from agonizing to precarious  circumstances and with his GDP growth expectation at 5%.


President El-Sisi has said it before the presidential elections and after he had been inaugurated into office: “Don’t expect the economical situation in Egypt to improve before two years”


The overwhelming solidarity, with which Egyptian citizens financed the Suez-Canal project through state-certificates,  lead me to hope that Sisi’s call ‘People! Roll-up-your-sleeves!’ would trigger wide-spread initiatives. Instead I came to realize, that more than sixty years in varying degrees of suppressive governance has formed a nation, in which only the most energetic individuals find their way to the surface of an otherwise cumbersome work population.


It is in this context that I estimate the necessity of the Presidential Leadership Program, launched in October 2015. While the PLP – acquiring skills in governance, administrative & political fields but  most importantly in critical, analytical thinking – addresses already only ‘the fittest’, it is meant to reach out to those, who need peer role-models to understand about their own capacities, since the most noble goal of the program is to empower the youth,  who feels – in big parts – left out, as the yet unreformed public education sector and a staggering youth unemployment rate of ~ 27% has created, what most describe as a ‘cultural gap’.


In the meantime administrative bodies work towards the future.


To address but one issue: Egypt went through its worst energy crisis in decades starting in 2012, with power cuts common as its ageing state-run infrastructure struggles to handle rapidly growing demand for electricity in a country of now 90 million people.  Siemens got its biggest single contract ever and is one key partner in developing gas-fired power plants and wind power installations that will boost Egypt’s power generation capacity by more than 50 percent compared to the currently installed base. The big power plants are scheduled to generate electricity as of summer 2017; to bridge peak demand in the summer of 2016 Siemens will help refurbish old steam turbines and there will be an installation of distributed generation units to deliver additional power generation capacity on short notice close to locations where demand is the highest.


A lot of pragmatism with aggressive schedules define the overall working-atmosphere in Egypt’s executives floors. Naturally, all individuals, involved in or working for those projects get their share of pressure. There, the notorious Egyptian work ethos, grown under Nasser’s socialism, which had been summarized as ‘Bokra, in sh’allah, malesh’  [tomorrow, God willing, don’t worry’] seems like light years away.


I still hope that the steam of that pressure-pot will spread throughout the country a bit faster and productivity will be as self-understanding and providing adequate compensation.


Democracy & Freedom  is not only bought with a great price, but it is maintained by unremitting effort.~


 


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
Fiascoes, Foes, Friends & the Will to Surive

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt, The Evolving RevolutionLeave a comment			

					


		

			
Well a week into the mystery, that brought down a Russian holiday-maker plane on the Sinai, where except for 3 Ukrainian nationals aboard, all passengers and crew were Russia, the media won’t stop sharing a concern that leaves little doubt about its intentions.


While Prime Minister Cameron apparently ordered his government to bring British nationals immediately back to the Kingdom, which caused major logistic stress to the comparatively small resort air-port in Sharm El-Sheik,  I’ve just read that 80.000 Russian won’t be subjected to ’emergency evacuation’. Wouldn’t logic suggest, that president Putin would have decided such a step? –


One reads about thousands of ‘stranded tourists’. – Havoc in Egypt’s most popular resort? Safety concerns are of course in place.


My annoyance and growing sense, that something is foul about the emergency-evacuations is related to the timing of the shrunk empires prime ministers reaction, an empire whose orbit is reduced to its very borders, a kingdom that survives in considerable proportions on his Middle Eastern investment partners, a state that draws his prestige from the presence of a royal family, whose financial calamities forced the sellout of most prominent properties in the city of London.


“Russia halted flights to Egypt on Friday amid growing fears that a Russian jet downed in Egypt last week was bombed.” [Ahram online today, Saturday Nov 7th, 2015]


‘Was bombed’ ?? – While a possible bomb aboard the airliner is the scenario adopted by main-stream media, which had at first been suggested from American intelligent services, pushed into the limelight  by US-media, with others quick to follow, leading – an hour after release – a couple of European airlines to halt flights to and from Sharm El-Sheikh without, prior to the disaster, heeding Egypt’s calls for greater coordination to fight terrorism and not having shared intelligence with Cairo about the crash of the Russian passenger plane: the bomb-scenario has not been proven yet. It is worth pointing out here that neither British nor American experts are part of the investigation team, that consists of 47 aviation and terrorism specialists. The investigators are from Egypt, Russia, France and Ireland. The investigation core team is surrounded by  several sub-committees.


It is based on the very same spirit of assumptions, that seem sufficient these days to process political agendas, as time is becoming crucial in light of a world-wide recession, that governments prefer to sweep under the rug.


*  *  *  *  *  *


When I first noted that president El-Sisi is going to the UK to meet with Cameron, plus that prime minister Cameron had announced a crack-down on the Muslimbrotherhood, ‘things’ again made sense to me, as this announcement was in line with the UK government having send MI5 personnel over to Egypt, in the aftermath of the clearance of the ~6weeks long Muslimbrotherhood sit-ins in defiance of the ouster of short-lived- pres Morsi at two prominent squares in Egypt’s capital.- After all: the UK – ‘Brotherhood operates media center and its English website from London. 245 Brotherhood affiliates took over the notoriously extremist Finsbury Park Mosque after the removal of radical preacher Abu Hamza plus they foster relationships with numerous British Islamic organizations.'[*1] many of whom have made headlines with supporting or recruiting British nationals to fight for IS in Syria, like some Islamist groups do elsewhere in Europe.


However I kept wondering: how is the British government going to accomplish a ban on Ikhwan? Would a crack-down on the Muslimbrotherhood not upset one of his key-investors from the Gulf, namely the Emir of Qatar? As is well known in the meantime, Qatar hosts, accommodates and sponsors big calibers of the MB who fled Egypt after July 3rd. Even Saudi-Arabia had decided to label the MB a ‘terrorist organization’. “Brotherhood exiles including Hamas [a branch from MB]  leader Khaled Mashaal and spiritual leader of the MB Sheikh Yousuf al-Qaradawi. They have found a haven in Qatar and are supported in the state owned media, Al-Jazeera. In March 2014 Saudi Arabia threatened to close its border with Qatar unless its support for the Muslim Brotherhood ends. How does big-business come to evolve? – Through lobbying.- We need to read a well researched paper on how many lobby-groups, with what kind of long-term strategy, Qatar is financing in the UK.


If I had any at hand, I would place a cartoon here, showing the British empire at a leach, of Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, while the Emir of Qatar himself is at the leach of the US-intelligent services, all three of them standing at a $-black-hole, while the Muslimbrotherhood – remember their ‘strategy-of-gradualism’ – hold the end of a supra- leach.


But they have lost Egypt..


At the point of history, where we at are for now, Egypt is still key to Qatar’s geopolitical ambitions – as a matter of fact, the only key-player next to Turkey.


That all makes me wonder: to what extent is the British sovereignty compromised, when sovereignty means more than self-declaration and protocol. To what extent are the British still in charge of their own policy? Who urged Cameron to create chaos in Sharm El-Sheikh?


Noticing the media hype followed by Cameron’s fight-restrictions I first thought ‘what a hoax’, a possibly vile act of revenge for Russia’s military initiative in Syria as most ME-pundits who occupied themselves with the disaster agreed upon – it was indecently premature to draw conclusions that would have a foreseeable devastating effect on the Egyptian tourism industry. I found no logical explanation for it other than ‘a certain foreign country persuaded Cameron to act’, because the crash caused no loss of lives of British nationals. Yet another most lamentable plane-crash in the history of civil aviation has apparently been hijacked for opaque political ends.-


*  *  *  *  *  *


Will the plane-crash, neatly established as ‘bomb’ attack – again: based on assumptions, not on investigation results – constitute a  set-back for the Egyptian economy, which was slowly about to recover?


Who is interested in Egypt’s well-being, prosperity and success? Is it legitimate to wonder who might be interested to ‘give a helping hand’ to hinder Egypt to get its place in the community of nations, where it ought to be, “to built a modern, civil society, proud of its values and cultural legacy”? – These questions emerge here in Egypt as the most logical mental response to an otherwise incomprehensible blaming campaign. I’ve read a post on Twitter with a mental nod, that when 9/11 befell the US, the whole world media shared bewilderment and compassion.


Now, that Egypt perhaps fell victim to a vile terror-scheme, the media kept focused on technicalities & bomb-scenarios, others stressing how painful the evacuation was for the tourists, how poor the Egyptian authorities provided etc. – thanks God the British ambassador had been in Sharm. He underlined the logistical challenge, the mass evacuation of holiday makers caused and made a case for the airport authorities live on camera.


For whom is it good news, if ‘the military dictatorship clique in Egypt’ is found unfit to govern?  – I think for the same people, who still try to convince the world, that only the Muslimbrotherhood had a democratically elected president.


To my delight, a long-standing friend & ally to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, raised up against the UK government amidst the flood of opinions that poured out of the media. like the unprecedented torrential rains recently that have hit parts of Egypt with extreme damages and loss of lives.


The media, backed by pundits drew a grim picture of ‘Egypt’s security as a chimera – the government was negligent and certainly under the thump of terrorists in the Sinai’. Punditism goes/went as far as claiming ‘Sinai is occupied by terrorists’. –


In that hailstorm, suddenly a warm rain fell on my soul.


Khaldoon Al-Mubarak,chairman of one of Britain’s most popular soccer clubs and close business associate of UAE Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed urged the UK government to crack-down on the Muslimbrotherhood as Cameron announced his government intended to or else: the UAE will withdraw a multi Billion arms deal from the UK- state-portfolio. In the UAE, the Brotherhood movement is being monitored with great concern. Over 100 MB-members are awaiting trial.


In context of UK-economy, the Kingdom of Saudi-Arabia should be mentioned. As for the Muslimbrothers, the new King too has no overt relations with the brotherhood. While over time, the brotherhood has adopted most of Saudi-Arabia’s Wahabism-interpretation of Islam and ‘exported’ it to Egypt, the royal court remained distant to the movement, instead of embracing and integrating it. Because?.- The Brotherhood had been listed as terror-organization in KSA, shortly after late King Abdullah might have realized, that preventing the realization of their ultimate plans – as unfolded in Egypt – necessitates a formal ban.


Saudi-Arabia too is a big spender in the United Kingdom.


Are we going to see proxy-wars soon emerging in the UK?


*   *   *   *   *


Modern societies as well as societal utopia need no septic think-tank theories who are being imposed on countries as ‘creative chaos’. But we read:  “A spectre is haunting Egypt. The spectre of a dead revolution.” Really? What then is a revolutionary goal? What does a revolution [assumed to serve the people] really want? I thought it’s about grave change of how the state handles affairs, with the main goal to bring social justice to the poorest and most ineloquent humans of the Egyptian society. The only spectre that is haunting Egypt is that of outdated ideas which prevent what they claim to stand for.


How, if not as supportive, can one read a tweet from one of the architects of the Arab-Spring, a US based key-advisor for Middle-Eastern affairs, with special assignment to Egypt, when she on her twitter account conveyed the headline of an Egyptian daily newspaper “Social media activists launched several campaigns on Facebook and Twitter to call for a new uprising on 25 January 2016.” Activists try to gather masses to ‘complete the revolution’ as the Muslimbrotherhood relentlessly demand, with an online campaign hash-tag #BackToTahrir.


Like the protest against president El-Sisi’s visit to prime minister Cameron, long prepared through online & social media campaigns prior to his trip by Ikhwan & their supporters in the UK and advertized for in Egypt too didn’t materialize into more than a hundred, [a rather high estimate] rather less, people participating on, what was probably intended to become the  ‘day-of-solidarity & resurrection’ in London on the day, president El-Sisi had been expected to be received in No.10. –


To support dissatisfaction & frustration over economical hardships of what the then 3 years of more-or-less civil-disorder left behind until the 2014 presidential elections as fertile soil for what the campaigners seek moral & financial funding  for is irresponsible from a person, whose opinion translates into politics, and who works for an organization, that claims to foster peace, while the Muslimbrotherhood have sown hated, violence and divide.


“Don’t forget that we are plagued by terrorism along our 1,000-km-long border with Libya, Sinai and around Egypt. We need stability, so the rest of Egyptian society can survive.” [quoted POE from the UK-presser]


While Egyptian citizens, me included, don’t feel the war against the foundations of the Egyptian state, as the security forces and members of the Egyptian army are mainly exposed to terror and aimed at in attacks: I reiterate: “Don’t forget that we sleep safe in our beds while others are dying on our behalves.”


When the state of emergency had been lifted in November 2013, I felt relief and grief at the same time. Relief for obvious reasons, grief for the predictable ‘streets-back-to-normal’ conditions, that would come with lifting the curfew and would prevent a brisk and efficient work-environment for security forces to rid the country of numerous ill intended individuals, who conveniently find shelter and fast escape in the ever so busy streets of Egypt.


But the economy…


To my surprise, all major limelight events passed without having been even touched by terror-attacks.


To my surprise, a sense of security has been reestablished, leaving all non-politically agitating citizens look up in awe, when the remark ‘we have a war in Egypt’ comes up in a conversation.


We might never fully get to know a convincing reason for what caused the Russian  plane to crash.


But we most certainly will all feel its implications.


We know that a healthy economy is the key to achieve social justice and care to provide the infrastructure needed for trade, big or small, to mention just one aspect.


I respect president El-Sisi for many reasons. One main reason still is: until now, he never made a promise, he could not keep. That translates to me: he takes the people very seriously. I don’t resent, that president El-Sisi has no soft-spot for activists. As activists have failed Egypt until now. – One aspect i.e.: from 2011 until 2012 they didn’t bring forward valid candidates to compete in the presidential elections, and finally gave their vote to the Muslimbrotherhood candidate Morsi, banking on his promise that he will include liberals in his government. Then in 2014 again they didn’t bring forward competitive  presidential candidates. Boycotting elections or invalidating votes had been their answer to the challenge to finally redeem the promises they made to their fellow contemporaries about their abilities and to work together for the goals of the revolution.


I certainly don’t expect those, still well funded ‘pro-democracy’ agitation NGO’s & selected individuals, financed to a vast extend  through subsidiaries on behalf of or upon order from the absolute monarch in Qatar, and to a lesser or similar extent from the notorious Soros-funded ‘pro-democracy & against national borders’ organizations, to bear results, other than that their local appointees, as they are getting if not regular wages, at least project-related salaries, having some financial relieve.-


Costs of living have climbed for external and for internal reasons. External reasons are subjected to world economy and Egypt is part of the international trade-machinery. As for the internal reasons: bizarre profit expectations are still one reason that pushed prices up. However: the chain is much more complex.


My conviction is that recycled political ideas imposed on Egyptians from Western based think-tanks will eventually be marginalized as their protagonists will continuously fail to deliver.


Because with Egyptians “it seems that there is a recurrent problem in our culture of being unable to reach people efficiently, except on some superficial level. When people say they’re ‘in tune’ with a particular segment of society other than their own, it almost always means that they deal with a minute fraction of what they assume is a sample of it. Each social class, sub-culture, or at best, building (let alone neighborhood) is so self-involved that it ends up speaking, critiquing and analyzing itself.”


While the realization, that democracy is a process, which first and foremost requires participation, might well take another generation. In the meantime the new parliament will start their sessions and who knows – … some parliamentarians might inspire discussions, that lead to a long anticipated governmental transparency and some might inspire people to care for each other.


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
Inside Egypt – The Suez Canal & Parallel Realities

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt, The Evolving Revolution3 Comments			

					


		

			
“The bitter reality many Egyptians find impossible to admit is, that a country that is not in full control of its own territory cannot aspire to play a regional role”  – I quoted a recent argument [adapted I guess]  representative of the critical politically left-aligned movement in Egypt in an ongoing  battle over ideological superiority.- However: it lacks convincing power, as the reality is and has been already proving otherwise.


I didn’t assume the Egyptian government started building the Suez-Canal in solitary self-celebration. I saw the project more like a ‘partnership with society’. But that Egypt’s New Suez Canal conjoins the Chinese Silk Road has been good news to me.


On inauguration day we saw on the state-run Ahkbar newspaper a hand painted picture of president El-Sisi steering a boat, wearing a tie in flag-colors, behind him a few cheering people, passing by uninspiring high-rise buildings, overflowing by a merry peace-dove, carrying an olive-branch in its beak. I found the painting very intimate plus it reminded me on a time, when Egypt -still in the 90-ies -had ‘hand-painted- advertisement billboards; the foto-billboard-hype came way later. That picture had been placed in the NTY.  On a London‘s canary wharf, one could read [provided it hasn’t been photo-shopped] ‘The world thanks Egypt for boosting the economy.’ Part of the #Suezcanal hash tags, were used on Twitter by journalists & their followers who tried to promote reservations, if not downright belittlement about the whole endeavor. They were outnumbered from Shipping-companies & experts on freight navigation, plus Egyptians who wholeheartedly celebrated, what is rightfully theirs. A lot of pictures showed the festivities around the Suez Canal, some of them sharp aerial  shots, some focused on the people attending, some spotlighted El-Sisi, some ..   – Like a professor of economy from the American University said that day “Our culture can be very sentimental & this was the 1st time Egyptians have been so galvanized, it was a brilliant idea by El-Sissi – the Egyptians now own the canal”


The New Suez Canal celebrations were criticized by mostly foreign press and/or think tank representatives. Some elegized it as overly nationalistic; others ‘The Suez Canal inauguration ceremony, estimated = $30 mil (Bloomberg) could have paid the salary of: 400 full professors or 2176 public doctors for ten years’ – In case you didn’t  know: the celebrations had been fully paid for by private companies, as the president had said early on, there won’t be spend one single Pound from the state-budget for the inauguration of the Suez-Canal. The arguments of politically left aligned activists, following the slogan  ‘social justice before national security’, are appealing to the humanist gut. However: the activists still fail to let the Egyptians know how to generate sustaining state-revenues.


In addition opponents predominantly and mono-causally blame the terror attacks, Egypt is exposed to after Morsi had been ousted on, what they call ‘an oppressive regime’. “Egypt faces terrorism in the northern Sinai peninsula, but also in near Suez and on Egypt’s mainland as well as acts of sabotage on electricity towers and assassinations of public figures such as the Chief Prosecutor, the late Hisham Barakat.  In the Sinai, Egypt’s military had to cease cooperating with the limitations prevailing under the Camp David Accords by which only civil police are to operate in zone C.  While these restrictions are lifted now, that insurgency has longstanding roots going back to 2003-2004.” [Read: https://sherifazuhur.wordpress.com/2015/08/05/interview-with-sherifa-zuhur-on-counterterrorismcoin-in-egypt-and-beyond/%5D


While political scientists & think-tank analysts explain to the world outside how Egypt is a failing state, Campas, Egypt’s institute for statistics, has published that within the last 5 months, 4776 companies have set up shop. And while now, after the inauguration, new cranes with a height of 52 m and a reach of 72 m, serving vessels of up to 18,000 teu capacity, are being installed, one might be inclined to substitute ‘might bring success’ with ‘will be successful’..  Still we read articles debating on why the New Suez Canal is trivial auxiliary rather than a necessity. The answer is: ‘No, it is solely made to help pundits write and earn a living!’


The bitter reality is, that the whole Middle East is enwrapped in terror threats, and, coming back to the Suez Canal, that Egypt managed to deliver a celebration free of attacks, as many had anticipated, is owed to the strategic and tactical approach, the Ministry of Defense together with the Ministry of Interior chose to apply. While I’m not a security specialist in any way I can see that terror violence has been curbed tremendously. I’m aware that the means to efficient security operations aren’t always in line with what appeals to a mentality,  used to a social environment, in which is no room for vile intended destruction of the very same. “If the Egyptian government had fought as ruthlessly as possible, then it’s possible the conflict might be a shorter one, but as Pres. Sisi himself noted, the public concern for human rights limits the use of tactics which might eradicate such groups.” As part of his program, which El-Sisi has announced after being  inaugurated as president of Egypt, a thorough reform of the Ministry of Interior was expected to happen. Until now, we have seen a few shuffles within the ministry, the biggest one had been the replacement of the Minister himself. I keep wondering: how can a reform take place while ‘facing an enemy using extremely brutal tactics towards [the government] and civilians who are thought to be cooperating with the Egyptian military and police.’, when 90% of the assaults are being directed at state-facilities, police officers and vital institutions, while citizens are being agitated by activists through hammering ideologically distorted ‘reports’ into their heads on social media, to attain a negative attitude about controversial safety measures, finally leading to a political apathy and frustration in those, who expected fast victories.


“Security” has to be seen holistically – it also concerns preserving the safety and security of citizens and their government.   Terrorists attack civilians and symbols of the state to try to sway other citizens into treating them as a pseudo-state (thus, the very name, Islamic State).  The Egyptian government has much to overcome, but the employment of many Sinai residents in the new Suez Canal project is a boost to security, as is the awarding of reparations to those forced to leave Rafah during the buffer operation.” ‘The detachment between Egypt’s intellectual elites and the overwhelming numbers of simple minded inhabitants seem to be a constant in the struggle for change of institutions.’ President El-Sisi repeatedly pointed out, that the Muslimbrotherhood of Egypt is can be seen as the originator of the Jihad terror, which dominates the headlines in the Middle East since it culminated into, what they call a ‘Caliphate’ with a Caliph, in summer last year. – ‘Elimination of terrorism’ is, what El-Sisi aspires as a political goal, with regard to terrorism. This is very different from ‘elimination of terrorists’. Presidents El-Sisi’s holistic approach as he often elaborated – political, social and military measures – will produce results over time, some of which are already showing as the majority of citizens notices that despite the emboldened announcement of the Muslim brotherhood cadres from abroad and  inside the country, none of the Million-people-support marches for ex-Islamist president Morsi ever materialized, nor did they succeed to drag Egypt into the bloodshed, most ‘Egypt-specialists’ henchman bank on and some petty souls even hope for, as their fantasy of what a revolution is requires tens-of-thousands people dead, the countries cities burned to the grounds.


Opponents, who observe El-Sisi, will have to admit: this man never makes a promise he can’t keep.- I call this integrity. A rare, a very rare streak these days. I just read that ‘The opposition will not boycott parliamentary elections’ – that’s a piece of good news, so many people have been waiting for. May the soon to  be elected parliamentarians engage as well in this ever so complex “intellectual war on terrorism [which] has also faltered because we cannot promote freedom – freedom of thought and civil responsibility by accepting a vision of an Islamic society which is not free, but which merely eschews (rejects) violence against the state. For example, the large Salafiyya Jihad movement in the Sinai are not all involved in terrorism, but they promote a conservative social vision which is unfair to some members of society (for ex. women).”


For Egypt: the parliament won’t suffice to mediate grievance & accelerate remedial action. To get a majority of people engaging into social projects that will predominantly serve the poor & underprivileged people with little to no means to help themselves will be another pyramid to be built.


For the world outside: ‘when will the interpretative authority of Middle East issues be withdrawn from the left-wing intelligentsia oligarchy and given focus on facts on the ground?’		



			
					

	




			
				


			
				


			

		

			
Water does not flow through the same riverbed twice

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt, The Evolving Revolution2 Comments			

					


		

			
Egypt is in a transition. A rough one. A unique one.-


On the surface we have a battle between people fighting for outgrown concepts among opposition forces and a decisive army of people equipped with a highly entrepreneurial frame of mind to safe Egypt from the claws of Islamic fundamentalists.


I wish reporters and activists would care more for objectivity. From friends who I find trustworthy I hear that some stories are made up, facts twisted, insignificant occurrences blown up to major violations or misdemeanors, depending on the perspective. One reads a lot about torture these days.


I don’t know what and whom to believe.


In the headlines one will find reports about security forces who get shot while protecting Churches or while fighting for Egypt’s national safety, which is mostly jeopardized at its boarders through rebellious, unstable neighbor collaborators who infiltrate the country with weapons and jihadists in continuous effort to support what had begun already a couple of months ago, when “In fact, the Brotherhood had taken measures to bring back, arm and organize thousands of “mujahedeen” and release convicted terrorists from prison throughout the previous months, to use them exactly for this purpose should the Brotherhood fail to control the Egyptian state.” (4)


While individuals have the liberty to handle their private information to their own sense of what they wish their social environment to know, coping with the consequences of having disclosed their private affairs to a person neither willing nor capable of helpful and supportive sympathy or both, governments have national consequences to consider.


‘With respect to governmental information, any government may distinguish which materials are public or protected from disclosure to the public based on classification of information as sensitive, classified or secret and being otherwise protected from disclosure due to relevance of the information to protecting the national interest.’(1)


While ‘The Universal Declaration of Human Rights states: “Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference, and impart information and ideas through any media regardless of frontiers”(1) I wonder if they could foresee that the media, thought of a corrective force for the state agencies in their founding stage, would become a handy tool of mass-manipulation with an enormous roll-back effect on the governments. Other countries’ governments that is.-


We are living in an era, where the loss of credibility of journalists has become normal, as integrity apparently became a value, buried in the history of humanity and left subjected to interpretation.


On the national level media are self-muzzled since every successful editor-in-chief knows how to mute ambitious journalists or to phrase it more politely: how to make them understand what he is expected to write. In Germany we already speak about the ‘Systempresse’ which can be translated to lobby-press. From the US I hear that opinions, not serving main-stream political interests, share the same fate. In both, Germany and then the US some journalists retire to blogs and private internet-news platforms, being forced away from public mass attention. Free Press – A legally flawless arrangement.


Egypt’s opinion discourse appears overwhelmingly led by those familiar with the benefits of today’s ‘free-world’ and informed about the abstracts of the underlying value-system, however generously overlook the price it came and still comes with. Moreover and more perilously: they don’t seem to pay attention to events beyond Egypt’s borders jeopardizing Egypt’s national security.


I follow some enthusiastic and very dedicated journalists who seem to me blinded by the rainbows of dream world realities.


Inter-dependencies in the parallel Universes of the Egyptian nation where people have developed a concept-of-self independently with essentially antagonistic life-styles over decades play well into the hands of those who have ulterior self serving motives.


What drives Egyptian journalists or activists to raise their voice in support of freeing journalists of a television station [Al-Jezeerah (AJ)], a TV net-work everyone in the Middle East can know for its partisan stance on the Muslim brotherhood? Partisan to the extent that some see AJ as a Muslim brotherhood promotion channel!


As a consequence of AJ’s all too obviously fact-detached covering of Egypt’s transitional phase after June 30th, giving a very wrong and manipulative impression on ‘events on the ground’, the Egyptian government withdrew AJ’s license to operate. Instead of respecting the decision and fighting in the courts to reestablish their permit, the Qatar based management of AJ decided to have their staff remained in Egypt where they took residence in several rooms of a well known 5 star hotel. In late December 2013 the journalists got arrested. While the photographer has been released in the meantime, we see solidarity calls, locally and internationally, demanding the release of the detained journalists.


Is the question still allowed: why did the journalists not retire from a news-network that had never for a moment considered to take the chance and try to apologize for biased coverage to ‘maintain their integrity’ [as they claim to have] once there had been no doubt about the net-works propagandistic character?


A lot has changed in the past decades but life is still riding on choices. I can’t think of any media outlet or publication that can afford to oppose the ‘shareholders expectations’. The press/media have become a business like any other. – However: would journalists have had withstood the temptation of ‘soft corruption’ and resigned.. it might not have come to this.


Friday January 24th had been a day when I wished for a cancellation of the governmental promoted festive demonstration to celebrate January 25th, the day that initiated the Egyptian ‘Arab-spring’ revolution: three bomb attacks in random places throughout the day.


January 25th has become a very emotional day. Protagonists from different camps accusing each other for ‘stealing the revolution’, demonstrations, though almost marginalized, and random terror attacks with daily reports on shot police officers hinder the onset of reviving economical activities and contribute to a crawling nationwide depression.


I came across an article where a journalist was trying to  “interviewing the ‘Bride of Sisi’, as she called herself, when a crowd gathered around her [me] and another journalist and accused them [us] of working for a ‘terrorist’ news channel” [Al Jezeerah] A curious chant at Tahrir on January 25th had been: “Where’s Al Jazeera? We are the Egyptian people!” Thousands of Egyptians headed to Tahrir that day despite bomb threats announced from the Sinai based Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, a terror organization that can be linked to Al-Qaeda and the Muslim brotherhood that claims responsibility for the bomb-attacks in Sinai and Egypt’s capital. To protect the citizens who support the course of the interim government, the ‘hot-spots’ had been secured in a way able to defend war-like scenarios. 260.000 security forces and tanks had been deployed all over Egypt.


What has it been like ‘on the grounds’ on January 25th? – Hundreds, if not more, reported gathered at the Journalists Syndicate chanting against what they call the ‘military rule’. This lead to clashes in the perimeter of the Journalist Syndicate march and on near by 6 October bridge where an APC came and shot two teargas canisters in front of the Press Syndicate causing protestors to run in different directions. ‘Still marching on October bridge, road is not blocked, chants saying ‘Sisi is like Bashar’’. Birdshots by CSF towards protesters, a clash is in the making, around 400 protesters..  while in the meantime confirmation of ‘massive explosion’ in Suez had been reported with news of targeting Security Forces center. Later anti-government militants fired an Rocket Propelled Grenade at a Central Security Forces (CSF) camp in Suez and then opened heavy fire on the camp.. As a Russian official sees the terrorist acts: ‘Cairo bombings is Brotherhood’s response on new constitution and their continuous loss of followers and supporters.’(3) Meanwhile at least 6 people got arrested at Maadi metro station after “opening fire on police officers.” You heard people say: Egypt now has two variants of totalitarians: pro-Sisi and pro-Morsi. They are now fighting each other over the “right” to oppress the rest.‘All journalists please very careful. Mobs attacking journalists (even Egyptians) accusing them of being part of Al-Jazeera.’


What a day!


Weekends nowadays usually start with the announcement of tight security measurements to protect citizens from pro-Morsi protesters’ violence and end with a report of the number of protesters arrested, wounded or shot, oftentimes weapons secured and/or terror-cells detected.


January 25th 2011 has given Egypt an open political opposition. Now we have several groups who compete with each other and aggressively against the state, whereby it should be noted, that mainly the Muslim brotherhood sympathizers still cling to aggressive and violent opposition, still hoping Morsi can be reinstated.


While more differentiated Western observers can understand that the authorities show no hesitation to lock up remnants of the brotherhood regime during demonstrations, they do feel uneasy when the same happens to members of what they think of as ‘revolutionary stratum’, like socialists, activists and utopists.


‘For the uninitiated, Egypt‘s streets are split between pro-Morsi, pro-Sisi and pro-democracy activists today, each laying claim to the 2011 revolution.’ – ‘Nope – this is misinformation- it’s anti-Morsi 90%, MB 10% and of the 90% anti Morsi 80% pro-Sisi & 20%  anti-Sisi. Game over?’(2)


“When the people find they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic“ said Benjamin Franklin. Money support had been the basis of pro Morsi support all along!-  These days speculations about Qatar based and/or exiled brotherhood members circulate, rumoring about excessive funding to boost up the shrinking number of demonstrators and demonstrations since the window of opportunity might close shortly.


Getting hooked and adhering to a naïve narrative that is comfortable from a Western point of view at the expense of reality will leave the distant observer firstly with false sense of understanding for a genuine political process and eventually inept to mentally prepare himself for similar scenarios, which are looming all over the world, taking shape already in Ukraine, Thailand, South-America, and Turkey as one can observe.


As for the secular Egyptian opposition: There is a point of time when bringing forward clearly phrased goals is essential to ensure they can be included in the ongoing process. Opposition should be productive and can only be supportive if it comes with addressable aims.- They still owe Egypt a concept.


It is true. The stern state imprisons everyone ‘who asks for it’ and comes in their grip, once they are close to a demonstration, trying to mute the zombie-like call to ‘Let the revolution erupt all over! Let it express our anger towards the fascist regime!’


I remember how I myself recently thought Egypt might be heading toward ‘McCarthyism’. – A young friendly chap who stopped joining the pro-Morsi protests a couple of months ago made this thought vanish. He is sharing a flat with active pro-Morsi student-colleagues, one of whom had been arrested during a Friday protest; being worried about his own safety I found myself surprised to still find him walking free, even after he went to visit his arrested friend in prison.  According to the logic I find in news-papers and social media, he ‘should’ have been arrested by now.. – I spoke with him yesterday. He wishes for Morsi to come back. But he as well is able to acknowledge that the majority of the people currently does not support this.-


Naturally this rough system of ‘justice’ turns away many sympathizers who initially gave their full support to the interim-state. – Naturally people walk away, once circumstances get complicated and develop beyond their capacity. – Naturally men who march through life to the rhythms of a drum have no ear for the whisper of a serenade.


‘Are the Egyptians edging at a profound crisis of conscious, questioning their identity?’ – Yes of course! Is that not to be expected given the circumstances??


While the official US still supports the Muslim brotherhood, as their speaker in a recent Q&A underlines with think-tanks still strongly recommending ‘dialogue & discussion with Muslim brotherhood members’ in order to avoid “exacerbate persistent instability” giving ‘inclusivity’ the bitter taste of distortion, Egyptian columnist Wael Nawara delivered a convincing counter thesis, showing that the ‘able’ think tanks didn’t even glance on the map of the Middle East and Egypt’s neighbors. “The idea of granting terrorists, or their allies, control of a country like Egypt, with the rest of the Middle East to follow, in an attempt to pacify them is like giving your arm to a shark hoping it will spare the rest of your body.  .. The interim government in Egypt could be accused of many things. But the explosive belt around Egypt of countries collapsing and failing under Islamist militant attacks is not something of its own doing. If this or future governments manage to hold on to Egypt and cause that wave of anarcho-Islamist terrorists to be reversed, it should be applauded and supported. The United States may have seen a glimpse of terrorism horrors in 9/11, Iraq and Afghanistan. But adding a failed Egypt to the equation would change everything. Egypt has often been the first piece triggering the start of that domino effect in all directions. After all, in the middle of the Middle East’s map lies Egypt.”(4)


The future however seems to have already started to take shape following the dynamics of the past months. While the official US still rants at Egypt in their habitually imperial manner, Russian President Vladimir Putin seized the opportunity and secured Russia a new and important ally. Meanwhile Minister of Defense & Deputy Prime Minister Field Marshal Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi together with Minister of Foreign Affairs Nabil Fahmy went to Moscow and started to discuss military and technical cooperation between the two countries on a 2+2 scheme. It looks like that Russia and Egypt are having promising prospects for cooperation in large-scale projects.


As an Egyptian friend pointed out: ‘The great advantage Russia has over America is that it doesn’t have “think thanks” but functioning brains for its policies.’


‘Our task is not to fix the blame for the past, but to fix the course for the future.’ Continue reading “Water does not flow through the same riverbed twice” →


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
Lying starts when you keep silent about things that matter

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt1 Comment			

					


		

			
‘Wishing the ideal Egypt is no substitute for understanding the real one.’ , a tweet by a gray eminence from Egypt I saw today, which reflects an attitude one would wish revolutionary romanticists to adopt..


Last night I had been taken by surprise with a random poll on social media that gained 97%  with clearly “Yes, I do” answers to “Does Human Rights law apply to terrorists? – Questioner and participants suggest coming from a sound intellectual environment and having an economically middle class and up background. Hardly any of the 84 comments saw a conflict. The argument goes  ‘Yes. Not easy to accept this emotionally, but the only way to break this eternal circle of tit for tat.’


It sure feels good ‘to believe in humanity’ as long as you’re not personally exposed to its menace.


I find it frivolous to promote ideals while Egypt is confronted with threats jeopardizing the nation’s presence and threatening the future. “The Square” director refers to the Muslim Brotherhood as an “organized fascist movement”.


The referendum poll is concluded. Estimations suggest that the ones, who took to the stations voted in favor of the constitution with app. 95% ‘yes’ votes.


As well known prior to the vote, this constitution is far from perfect. It gained much criticism, especially since the army has been granted its traditional rights, most disappointingly to all: the military trials for civilians. Yet this constitution, unlike the one from 2012 enforced by Morsi regime, goes much further in recognizing the rights of women, youth and the Christian minority in Egypt.


As it is normal to rant at popular votes and badmouth governmental activities it sure is not normal to try to keep fellow co-citizens from voting by random shooting – as has been the case in various locations – or even put bombs and Molotov-cocktails or burn tires and block roads.


Only talking with the people and judging the referendum by the light air and happiness that could be found again in the streets of Egypt during the days of voting would’ve lead to assume, Egypt has a good future again SOON! Considering that the people have to defend themselves against an obstinate minority which shows no intention to participate in the construction of a democratic state of Egypt and that their threats to violently hindering the referendum to be carried out so it had to be secured with heavy security measures. I have been surprised so many people went to participate! However it is becoming clear, that Egyptians won’t tolerate the Muslim brotherhood ever again. It even seems that this time the people decided to support the government in disbanding the brotherhood, since the referendum is widely been seen as an instrument to measure approval.


Advising the Egyptian government “to create a “level playing field and secure impartiality” and “secure access to media for all views” in order to ensure a free and fair voting process.” as did the Berlin-based Transparency International (TI) is giving highly theoretical advice from a very low level of practical involvement.


It has become common that reports and assessments have become an issue of ‘the politics of omission’. One can read plenty of articles pointing out the flaws of handling the referendum process while putting a blind eye to the intimidation and violence spread from the opposition camps. Western attention has pointed to the fact that the political opponents were denied the freedom to openly advocate a no vote among the people and were subjected to police harassment. One can argue whether such violence justifies the security from the unrestrained force that they use against the opposition, but looking at what really happens to the people, who understand how to respond with constructive opposition should  challenge the image of a brute police state ‘systematically cracking down at a peaceful group of protesters.’


Most of the articles have failed to mention with an almost abusive compliance the conditions under which the referendum had to be carried out.


Did anyone mention  the physically unable who had to be carried, the cancer patient who left his bed at the hospital to vote in the referendum, the old Coptic priest who is helped by a soldier to get to the polling station to cast his ballot? These are just few of numerous examples. This is telling us about the human depth of what’s happening in Egypt.


It seems the people who went to ballot-box despite the potential dangers they might face did so to demonstrate the decisiveness to show support for the government, a plea to move on.


I find it very telling as well that mostly the ‘parents’ could be seen in the polling station, not so overwhelmingly many youth. No wonder though, it’s the parents who have to provide for the living and are expected to settle the bills..


			
					

	




			
				


			
				


			

		

			
To Whose Benefit?

						

				On  By davb.deIn EgyptLeave a comment			

					


		

			
Last night’s bomb-attack in the city of Mansura, aimed at the provincial’s capital police head-quarters is said to have been an act of retribution. ‘Islamist extremists sought to revenge their ‘martyrs’ from the sit-in dispersals in August this year’ suggested the twitter-timeline. For the ‘informed public’ was clear: “the Muslim Brotherhood is behind this”.-


Now from inside Mansura one can hear voices from political parties, suggesting that the heinous act, factually leaving more than 13 people dead and about 150 wounded, most of whom reportedly belong to the police-forces, had been ‘orchestrated’, since the premises on which the car, allegedly carrying the bomb, parked, couldn’t possibly have been brought there, as the street had been blocked for a while, ‘this must be an inside job’.


Apart from the agony, the partly gruesomely wounded victims are suffering, and apart from the grief of the bereaved: what would be the benefit of inventing and carrying out such an insidious atrocity?


The Ministry of Interior surely has a lot to cope with. And they sure will have a lot to explain in the near future.


When the demonstration-law succeeded the abrogation of the state-of-emergency in mid November, the interim government unintentionally opened a second demonstration-front. The old activists came back to the streets and gained ‘glory’ in the local and foreign headlines in protesting this law, which lead to their and other protestors detention resulting into trials for inciting violence e.a.- A typical headline read “Egypt jails symbols of 2011 uprising”, and as almost to be expected: the EU immediately communicated a statement ‘demanding the verdict to be revised’. Is the interim government committing acts of self-sabotage?  – It is irritating that the court-sentence for one of the most prominent activists, who stood as well in the forefront on June 30th, received a hard to believe 3 years prison sentence. I can find this only very exaggerated.


Like a sympathetic amount of anarchy, I take exaggeration as an Egyptian streak. Moreover I’m coming to think ‘Egyptians’ love simplifications and have a strong tendency to despise opinions which are not in full swing with their favorite conspiracy-theories. You can hear sentences like ‘Egypt has been plagued by a bunch of activists who choose to collaborate with MB & terrorists under the pretext of confronting the military.’ Like most of what happens around ‘the state and the opposition’: it causes a constant stupefying dumbness in the conciliatory mind and leads eventually to an adjustment of measure. –


Demonstrations to protest the detention of members of the Muslim brothers, especially their leaders and explicitly ex-short-lived-president Mohamed Morsi have been centered on students, loyal to the Muslim brotherhood. Now the ‘law of retribution’ created another chain of protests against the protest-law and for the release of the detainees who are imprisoned because they protested that law and additional protest in solidarity with jailbirds from the opposition-camp, who had been released in the meantime since their lobby, the HRO’s had put enough pressure on the case.


In the boiling heat of one such protest when already bird-shot-guns were employed, a student, Mohamed Reda, got shot while – accounts differ – ‘he was heading to the administration of the prestigious, governmental, and religiously unaffiliated Cairo University, to get some paper-work done’. The shot had allegedly been fired by security forces. He died. Mohamed Reda became a reason for uneasiness in the ‘middle-class’ citizens spectrum, and a reason for further retribution-demonstrations among activists. Democracy-Meter showed: 511 student protests alone in November; I suppose that’s why the demonstration law had been imposed in the first place.


Yesterday the unfortunate death of a revolutionary Youth had been bemoaned, and went viral on social media: ‘The Egyptian revolution is embodied in Basem Mohsen: he lost an eye in clashes with police in 2011, was beaten by the Brotherhood in 2012 and finally shot in the head in 2013’ (by the interim government’s security forces during a protest). He was 19 years old when he joined the revolution in January 25th, unafraid and always to be found in the forefront.


Aversion against ‘state brutality’ has started to penetrate the layer of the ‘original’ revolutionary stratum.


No wonder.


In the meantime the constitution was almost finished. Among other disappointments it is becoming clear that still civilians could be put on trial by military courts. One key-demand of the Jan25th revolutionaries has been that military trials for civilians must be abolished.


I find it worth considering that writing a constitution in this counterproductive and willfully distorting atmosphere is everything else but contributive to maintaining an elevated frame of mind. So when Amr Moussa, the head of the Constituent Committee openly declared and explained that a constitution must not be regarded as an eternal script but rather a draft which will be adjusted over the years in the process of politics and in accordance with the societal needs, ‘things’ fell back into place for me.-


I strongly believe that fighting for civil-rights is a duty of every able citizen, once the goal is at least feasible, meaning: if there is a comparatively fair prospect of success; otherwise it’s a waste of energy that could be utilized for more productive activities leading to achieve that goal. – What would you need civil-rights for if there are no civilians left? Let’s not forget: Egypt was at the verge of a civil war just in June this year. It is becoming clearer every day that evil forces, commonly referred to as terrorist, seek to undermine a successful nation-building through directing and strengthening malicious activities with every support they can get.. – I’d find it difficult to continue my work sitting at the desk while knowing someone is trying to constantly set my house on fire. Terrorist attacks and assaults, as horrifying as they are, must be confronted and counteracted since it doesn’t look like they’d just vanish through ‘peace as the result of trade’.


Back to Mansura. Why would a government that is already under scrutiny and in dire need to proof itself and put economic plans into action, sabotage itself even more with orchestrating a major terror-attack on its very own personnel?


Assumed, like both major opposition camps have it: the ‘military junta’ orchestrated Mansura to gain the upper hand and make the politically unaware citizens surrender to their wisdom, thus accepting each and every security measure in humble gratefulness. That would presumably lead to the police state and military dictatorship, which some claim we already have. – But how? The police officers will still be the same. The army might have a bit more powers to act with, but for doing what exactly? Who would win?


Everybody knows that a state can only prevail with a certain but crucial number of ‘happy’ individuals. Happiness today and in this context means but gaining one asset: money. How many corrupted citizens does it take to present an embellished and misleading picture about Egypt? A few ten thousands, I reckon. They’d all would want their share of the cake. And now comes the point where the theory sucks. The cake can only be shared if taken off the shelf.


To see what the cake contains, one should look at what the second-revolution-wave, the one after June 30th, represented through the interim-government, already accomplished.


Next to all the already known gigantic, big, medium and small enterprises related to the Gulf countries, the World Bank, the States, the EU and other countries which the interim government succeeded to initiate or revitalize since July 3rd of this year, new projects aiming at internal/local entrepreneurship, are giving reasons for high hopes.


A new focus on Upper Egypt might even lead, evolutionary though, to a moderate kind of decentralization. For the first time in decades, infrastructural and housing problems are going to be solved big-scale in public-private partnerships.


The earnestness with which the call for increase in productive investment is being brought forward in various boards, plus the transparency standards imposed on multi-national-companies to be able to supervise their widely ramified business activities, leaves not awfully much space for ‘human weakness’, namely corruption.-


The syndicate of medical doctors, under the thump of the Muslim brotherhood, always males, for decades is now presided over by a woman, who is a well known Jan25 activist and renowned for her political ambitions and integrity.


This gives me reason to believe that sustainable change is paving the way in Egypt.


The constitution is ready to be voted for or against in a referendum, due by January 14/15th.- Despite the draft is already being slammed as lacking progressive aspects, one should honor the fact that subtle but significant changes have been adopted, as even Egypt’s ‘chief’ human rights representative concedes.


Under the given circumstances namely: the part of the public debate lead by leftists, who are focusing on elaborating on the multitude of shortcomings of the government while having obviously sworn an oath on banning to mention achievements from their comments on the current, the old protests and the new demonstrations.. – This government is quite a success!.-


Life goes on for those who understand how to work productively. Life drags on for those who have little space for creative innovation. Life sucks for those who are destined to follow the flow, since the river runs low.


The “anti-coup” – ”all-is-fine” – ”Mubarak-is-back” sentiments simmering the underlying mood in Egypt constitute of course a challenge to society as a whole.


“The military is behaving in a very heavy-handed way, as militaries are wont to do, and has begun to alienate even those sectors of society that have stood behind it so far. 2014 will see increased tensions between military and security forces and Islamist actors. It will also see worsening relations between the military and the secular opposition, especially the youth. Continuing demonstrations and escalating Islamist attacks on military and security targets in the Sinai and elsewhere will make it difficult, perhaps impossible, to address the country’s economic challenges. Egypt is not out of the woods yet.” Not all too agreeable. As a friend from Twitter has put it: all of the remaining Egyptian Islamists would fit into my reception. I don’t see that ‘Egypt’ is caught up in a stand-off with opposing parties, ready to emerge into a mass-revolt anytime soon, as some already suggest.


But it’s not because the Gulf has poured Billions of Dollars into Egypt’s economy that we have nothing to worry about. Businessmen are cautious.  “Some private sector Gulf investors have said they would not come back to Egypt without collateral to secure their funds, in response to judicial cases raised against their projects following the 2011 ouster of former president Hosni Mubarak. Egyptian courts issued no less than 11 rulings in business related cases since the 25 January Revolution, which included abolishing several government contracts concluded during Mubarak’s rule. These cases were raised by activists and lawyers, who believed that public companies were sold at low prices. These judgments resulted in legal dilemmas for several foreign companies in Egypt, which would be repellent to investment and threaten the business climate.” – However. Coming they will. ’Cautious optimism’ is justified.


The ‘cake’ at stake can and will be only distributed, when the country succeeds to find a convincing way to make its governance appealing and desirable, not only their front-man, which is widely thought of as going to be General El-Sisi. The power-of-public-consent is already established, since the government has already lost its ‘untouchable’ nimbus.


Egypt is still in the hibernation-mode, economy wise. – The interim government received a lot of credit as well on their trust- account from its friends and allies. The building ‘the world’ expects Egypt to erect has already most building materials at its disposal. The crucial challenge to solve now is: the statics of the building. Even if General El-Sisi would become president, provided he would submit to the pressure of the people and his fellow cabinet-colleagues and announce his candidacy which will – most analysts and Egyptians agree –result into a clear majority-vote, his presence alone would only provide the shape of the building-structure. The statics would have to come from inside.


The Ministry of Interior seems to be the most grief-stricken breach between the people and the government, and it has never been healed. All the trust, the government earned so far from the majority of the Egyptian people goes to the army and – in the noticeable aspects – to the interim-government.


If the Egyptian government succeeded to find a solution to the terror-problem and if the Egyptian activists succeeded to find an appropriate way to bring forward and promote their grievances, the governmental administrations together with new shaping societal movements could focus on tackling the underlying political, economical, and social challenges the people went into the streets for, back then, on January 25th, having a beautiful future.


There are signs that the leaders in Egypt have internalized the need to seriously address the problems at hand.


Adly Mansour, Egypt’s president, has just formed a fact-finding committee and ordered to investigate all the occurrences of violence after June 30th.- This is revolutionary. It’s still the Middle East. Not very long ago, Egypt had been reigned by aristocrats where nobody was expected to publicly account for anything that could question the whole.. – not because a few thousand Egyptians enjoyed the privilege of a Western education abroad, mostly at very reputable universities, all of Egypt has lost their conservative sense of national identity! Nations are slow to learn..


The question is: will Egyptians support their own cause and eventually sit themselves at the laid table or will they be manipulated into stubborn insistence of an undoable set of priorities and drift into another uprising, from which Egypt certainly won’t recover easily?


In the meantime, having in mind what all happened  after the November 13th and in light of what happened in Mansura last night, I come to believe it would be best to abolish the demonstration-law, reinforce the state-of-emergency with a curfew, Fridays be like other days, and ban demonstrations until the presidential election is over. – As Charles de Gaulle once said: “There is no time to distinguish between the unfortunate and incompetent.”


My conciliatory self prefers to think differently.


Let’s keep in mind: You can’t vote to change the laws of economics. – Egypt is suffering. Some Leftists are already making fun of the governments’ plea to show support and solidarity in combating terrorism. I’m as tired of unproductive comments as I’m tired of protests which embellish featherbrained hooliganism with politics. – May the three days of state-mourning meant to honor the victims of Mansura, bring out the hindsight that retribution leads only to destruction.


Let us reject what we think and accept what we see.  Let violence not be a substitute for wits..


“In the end, the treasure of life is missed by those who hold on and gained by those who let go.” Lao-Tse


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
The Villain, the Hero and the Hypocrite

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt4 Comments			

					


		

			


What is still left of the values of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that had been adopted by the General assembly of the United Nations, back in 1948, in the aftermath of the barbarianism of World War II? What is still ‘human’ in the Rights Organizations? – Everything. And that is why it is time for those now mostly self-serving ‘bureaus of organized upholders of moral standards’ to take a chance to better themselves. Temporary dissolution would be the noble way to resign from rusty-grown standards, for they deteriorated to a mumbo. But nobility has left men since a long time already. The HRO’s ought to dynamically and circumstantially adjust their action to the situation, while applying sensivity to regional issues. Putting a blind eye to abuse of human rights from the side of self-proclaimed victims, as is partly the case with Muslimbrotherhood in Egypt, is like making the fox guards the hen, is a declaration of ethical bankruptcy. It seems HRO’s factually only randomly live up to honor the rights of their institutionally framed promises. Regretfully, HRO’s grew as well to be associated with pretense and clichés of fundamental values since hardly any action is followed up with consistency to goals. What mostly happens when monstrous violations of human life, contempt of human integrity and defilement of human dignity occurs is a hasty sequence of outcries & condemnations, published through well established media-outlets spread through volunteers and sub-initiatives only to be eventually let at the mercy of their dreadful fate, once the immediate hype is over. – And the just & proper human beings of the world follow. Like fishes in an aquarium: you put some flakes at the surface of the water and ‘all’ fishes swarm up to regale themselves with fresh flake/news-spread. Once the ‘action-part’ is over, the tents are being decamped, the posters and flags being packed; for the big names then it’s time to celebrate themselves most probably in a lounge of a posh hotel, for the small guys: to rest in the comfortable feeling of their moral superiority. The victims of grave threats, the really affected and gruesomely suffering human beings, people in war-zones, are waiting in vain for human nobility to penetrate their unfortunate fate, their hope is futile for the triggering action of human spirits of mercy and redemption, redeeming the promise of rescue with immediate help. They put some issues on their web-sites but one can’t count on completeness. After the herd is gone, oftenly, the affected might even suffer more suppression, more violence, more pain. So the HRO’s resort to smaller battlefields, where moral-victory is cheap to obtain.


While i.e. the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria has not changed through HRO’s intervention and initiatives, with the people more or less left to their own survival skills, if they are lucky enough to still have a chance to apply them, the voices of ‘moral justice’ raise again over Egypt.


‘Egypt must immediately and unconditionally release women protesters‘, demand Amnesty International and other HR-groups.-


             What happened? About 22 women from the Muslim Brotherhood camp, 11 of which were minors, stood trial in Alexandria ‘for simply protesting’, as the narrative goes, this week, ‘21 women and teenage girls were found guilty of obstructing traffic during a pro-Islamist protest last month. The 14 women were imprisoned for 11 years, while the seven under the age of 18 were sent to juvenile prison.’ Newspapers showed pictures of the girls in white pious prison attire which would make your heart break, wouldn’t you have read as well, that some of them threw stones at passersby. Rough justice? “Yes, it is!” one does spontaneously concede upon the inappropriateness of this out-proportionate sentence. – How rough is it really? Isn’t it true that all judiciary is been acted out on the background of their societal context through the ones in power? Yes, it is.-




               Here is an example of authentic state brutality from a history that still resonates in our modern world and had been thought of while phrasing the UN-charter of Universal Human Rights. In the late 1930-ies, a resistance youth-group, mostly aged 14 to 18, had formed in Nazi-Germany. They rejected the Nazis‘ authoritarianism and set up protests, gatherings on street corners, ‘engaged in hiking and camping trips, defying the restrictions on free movement, which kept them away from the prying eyes of the totalitarian regime’, since camp-activity was sanctioned and encouraged by the governmental establishment. However: as soon as members of these groups had been identified by the Nazi-German state-security, the Gestapo, ‘as belonging to the various gangs, they were often rounded up and released with their heads shaved to shame them. In some cases, young people were sent to concentration camps or prison’ as one can read in various sources. In late 1944, ‘the state’ ordered a crackdown on the group, leading to 13 youngsters being publicly hanged in the city of Cologne.-




That had been an act of judiciary self-understanding in the late 30-ies of the last century. Time has changed. The surface of human nature has changed. Human nature has not.




In today’s Egypt, where an interim-government seeks ways to reach to presidential elections to achieve a system of governance, that will find mainstream consent, while keeping a preliminary ‘emergency-tool’ since the state-of-emergency had been annulled in accordance with the road-map, ‘Egypt’s president passed a law on Sunday making it illegal to hold demonstrations without the approval of the police and banning protests in places of worship, the perimeter of governmental buildings and of course banning weapons of any kind and, like everywhere else in the world, a ban on wearing masks. What is different is: now one isn’t even allowed to gather without permission, if the number of assembly exceeds 10 (ten) people.


             In a country like Egypt, where most socializing activities take place in large groups, the limitation to 10 is of course causing chuckles of laughter.. But wait: as clumsy an initiative as this ‘anti-protest-law’ comes over, as – regretfully – justified it should be viewed at. – With some youth agitated by the Muslimbrotherhood ‘to defend the rules of democracy and insist on the freely-elected president Mohamed Morsi’s reinstatement’, and a sense of entitelment to ‘have a right’ to demolish the University, set fire to the building, holding protests with throwing stones, Molotov-cocktails and disrupting public order, one can hardly deny that that kind of ‘peaceful protest’ wouldn’t demand some regulatory adjustment. “Students are the center of Egypt. When you limit their freedom, you limit Egypt” was a slogan. Really?


In the light of what Egypt, a state-in-the-making, has already to defend I see no wisdom in this freedom. Next to all the economical projects, having and are being signed with Gulf allies, the World-Bank is prepared for substantial support: 24 projects account for $4.6 billion are added to the Egyptian portfolio. “We are preparing new projects that are priorities for the people of Egypt” according to Hartwig Schafer, the WB country director.




What is an essential condition for economic activity? Freedom of schedule! – Protestors blocking the roads in random demonstrations, chanting for ‘Freedom’ just has no appeal and is met with little understanding for and from all the companies and individuals required, to be or get involved on all the projected enterprises!


             At a point I was wondering: what ‘freedom’ is the pro-Morsi youth having in mind? Is what they actually mean liberating themselves from a mostly dull and deprived home-environment?


As a sound majority of Egyptians state: we need to eat before we can discuss the details of our political agenda. The time to protest is not now.-




With the new protest-law enforcement, old activists came back into the scene, most notably the heroes of the first days of the revolution, who made it to the hearts & minds of the forces who fight for democracy in Egypt, one of whom is Alaa Abdel Fattah, whose intellectual means are obviously confined to the petty limitations of setting his goal at chaos and disruption. “#FreeAlaa”.  Seriously??  A revived hash tag on Twitter reflects the solidarity with Alaa, whose history goes back to 2005, when he followed his parent’s foot-steps as political activists, both of whom started political activism under Sadat. Alaa’s father, a human-rights attorney, had been arrested by Mubarak’s State Security in 1983 for 5 years and he reportedly had been tortured.- Aged 24, Alaa himself became a noticeable part of the opposition-front under Hosni Mubarak. His blog gained merits. On May 7th 2006, Alaa Abdel-Fattah was arrested during a peaceful protest after he called for an independent judiciary. His arrest, along with that of several other bloggers and activists, spurred solidarity protests by others around the world, some of whom created the blog “Free Alaa” devoted to calling for his release from jail. El-Fattah was released on 20 June 2006, after spending 45 days in jail. More actions followed..


But what did he learn, allow me to limit the time-frame, in the 3 years after January 25th 2011? I find it incomprehensible that an activist who, at this point of time, hasn’t anything more to offer other than ‘No 2 All’ still gets this amount of public compassion. – Probably because the Ministry of Interior doesn’t leave out any mistake one can think of..


Take how the law is being bended, when it comes to crimes committed by the ‘soldiers of justice’ the police officers. To address only one, most recent, prominent example: In March, a policeman was convicted of shooting at protesters, deliberately aiming at their eyes, during demonstrations in November 2011 (and it had been more then only one person who lost his eye!). The man dubbed the “eye sniper” was sentenced to three years in prison. (?!?) And now they are considering to again allowing Military trials for civilians. I know too little about Egypt’s law-system to see the necessity of this; my explanation would be ‘securing military locations’ – but as well the judiciary could amend the civil law for cases like that.-    .. see what is stirring the justified outrage?




To be clear: I am not happy about the demonstration-law. But the alternative would, as I understand the situation, be, at this point, the extension of the state-of-emergency, with the curfew and, I speculate, the package holds the ‘martial-law’. So having abolished the state-of-emergency came as a relief to the people, since the lifting of the curfew, we all suffered under, promised to restore a kind of normalcy.




Egypt still is ‘in a state of war’ as some say and see it. Fact is: there is a war against terrorism which is not over yet.


Some dispute the right of Adly Mansour, the interim-president, to sign a law, here: the demonstration law, since he is not elected, only appointed. True. According to this logic, the demonstrations against the protest-law were ‘completely justified’. The argument holds: ‘if the interim government is inept to come to terms with their opposing forces they should resign. –  Hmm.. and then what?


I can’t see that as a solution of the core-problem since until now Egypt didn’t find consensus among the battling political competitors. In a phase, where the country is just a stone’s throw away from “The Reign of Terror”, as the revolution unfolded in France, demanding over 35.000 lives of those people, who had other ideas to realize ‘fraternité, égalité et liberté’ than the political current of 1793.




As for the jailed women: they will be pardoned. Thanks to the pressure of HRO’s. Unjustifiably so! They supported a public pressure and squeezed that out of the interim-government, which is coming more and more under fire, since a lot of people expect miracles to happen to them individually, where a government can only define the framework of activity. What message is that, to pardon those girls? You throw stones at people to communicate your ‘political disapproval’ and then the HR organizations come to help you out?


As ridiculous as it is to confine them to 11 years in prison and spreading over the newspapers that their education won’t suffer for the Minister of Education lets the public know, that he makes sure that the girls will be provided with books and can make their exams in their penitentiary, as wrong is it, to let them get away with it.




The road to democracy is already paved. Interruptions through demonstrations and morally bankrupt HRO’s won’t stop it.




 “All life is a purposeful struggle, and your only choice is the choice of a goal.” Ayn Rand. I am a natural born optimist. I believe Egypt will find her way toward the aspired destination. The realist in me however worries whether a lifetime will suffice to see this happen. Please activists I’m asking you:  why are you wasting your and other people’s energy for small battles, where the fight for the real rights would need all this energy and more? Only engaging in constructive opposition can lead toward the achievement of the right of every Egyptian to be treated with respect, consideration and dignity.












			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
“God only knows the pain in our souls”

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt2 Comments			

					


		

			




Profound change is being expected in Egypt. Profound change is happening. Profound disappointment spoils the spirit.


Ever since in Egypt people started to fight for liberating themselves from authoritarian suffocation and social injustice back in January 2011, I was always irritated by what had all been expected to get accomplished in ‘no’ time’ and from ‘others’.Back then, during Morsi reign, and, still to a great extent, now.–


The first phase of the second or third stage of the Egyptian revolution (depends where you start, in 1952 or in 1919) begun with the interim governance of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) in February 2011.


It soon dawned upon Egyptians that democracy is a process and not a ready deal. A bit like a screwed up orthodox Coptic marriage. You can’t just divorce. It’s meant to be a life-time commitment. –


An unprecedented challenge awaited the interim government.


The best ideas had yet no institutional structures to be put into practice. The process of structure building had been continuously overshadowed and disrupted as well by traumas of an increasing crime rate –unheard of before-, since in the days of January 28th and thereafter. Back then, some ‘members of the revolution’ went to free inmates from their prison-cells, in addition prison-breaks were heard of in the news for a couple of days. The numbers accumulated to approximately 21.000 fugitives from justice.. Now ‘old bills got settled’, cars got stolen in horrifying numbers with breathtaking professionalism, burglary became ‘common’..


The Supreme Council with its military personnel was certainly expert in the art of war, but lacked all necessary skills or personnel, to regain already control over the stumbling economy, which had lost its healthy swing from the pre-revolution-era.


Right from the beginning of the revolution, freedom of speech had been used in abundance and seemed to mean: publicly talking about ‘everything in all aspects without the slightest restrain’. A public debate started about religious fascism, since now, as a matter of ‘democratically open-mindedness’, religious parties mushroomed, and started to openly fantasize about their visions for a religiously guided state.


Above all, the SCAF had a heavy heritage to handle.- The initial days of the revolution left martyrs. ‘The people’ wanted justice. Too unbearable did it seem to accept ‘starting a new chapter’, working toward presidential elections, without holding the security forces and other government institutions of the overthrown state accountable for their pre-revolution-time, and for their most current misdemeanors..


The old government was still run by the pre-revolution administrators and employees. The spirit broke for many.- Retaliation became an antagonistic demand; the biggest release of unifying energy while at the same time the biggest obstacle.


Some tried to press for ‘justice’. Demonstrations on Tahrir became a ‘common’ Friday pass-time activity. Universities went on strike, while workers strikes became habitual, private companies were surprised with a significant loss of work-ethics.


The SCAF later had gained an infamous place in Egypt’s revolutionary history through the ‘Maspero-massacer’, which lead to more demonstrations culminating into “Mohamed Mahmoud” clashes where more than forty demonstrators lost their lives and hundreds were injured or left crippled. That added grave anger and seeded more disappointment in the hearts of the protagonists of the revolution.


The violence kept investors very reserved about their aspirations to continue their activities with the aimed at pre-revolutionary plans for expansion, locked in the company drawers, until recently.


Back in spring 2011 the pious segment of society gained grounds and social life started to slightly change already. Some Clubs ‘played it safe’ stipulating new entry regulations: “strictly couples only” and the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the political branch of the Muslimbrotherhood, were publishing their program, despite their explicit announcement still a couple of month ago to “never partake in politics”.


A lot lead to bitterness against the representatives of the old regime and the members of the security forces and the military. – As is well known, as a result, Mohamed Morsi had been elected in a run-off election and Egypt prepared itself mentally for the beginning of the era of democracy.


Quite a lot of people imagined the ‘out-of-the-race’ leader of the Muslimbrotherhood (MB)/FJP, Khairat Al-Shater, rubbing his hands while his mouth filled itself up with saliva upon Mohamed Morsi’s electoral victory on June 30th 2012.. Recall that Essam El-Erian, the MB spokesman, had already announced in December 2011 ‘We reserve the right to revise all treaties’.-  Others were more relaxed and wondered in light of the mostly uninspiring and dull visions, which had been circulating in all details , whether ‘mediocrity wasn’t a good predictor for success’..


The election was concluded. Normalcy tried to take over. People started joking about ‘Um-Ahmed’, now Egypt’s First Lady. From what I saw on pictures: a conservative, plain women giving no hints of mental sophistication except in an interview, where I recall to have admired her bravery while she was speaking about how she managed to deal with the duties as a ‘single’ mother while her husband was in prison, which had frequently been the case.


One was however wondering, whether “president Morsi had any plans to announce his prime-minister & cabinet before the first 100 days of office will be over” ..


Anyways. After 27 days in office, Morsi presented his prime minister, Hisham Kandil. Dr. Hisham Kandil.- The ‘people of Egypt’ were still expecting miracles to happen. Social justice seemed to have a chance to take center-stage, because ‘the party carried it even in their name’. – Rather sooner than later, Kandil was nicknamed ‘Cotton-Nil’ since he responded to the energy crises emerging in summer that year with bizarre suggestions..


It would be incorrect to state the year, while the Brotherhood was in power, was inefficient.- They accomplished a lot. Mostly they established themselves in the governmental apparatus, their best people had been placed and/or promoted into key-positions and they, most probably, started spinning a net to cover each segment of governmental administration.


But they did, what they did, not good enough. Not for themselves, since they missed the art of imposing their will on a stubborn people. Not for Egypt, since they missed the point that they were expected to include a national dimension into their political agenda.


I.e. already in August, Coptic families were expelled in the Nile City of Dashour, Dostor newpaper got confiscated for ‘insulting the president and igniting religious strife’ .. – According to the Ministry of Interior, within the first 48 days of Morsi rule, about 1400 strikes, sit-ins and protests had been recorded.


In December Morsi pushed through a patched-up constitution, ‘home-made’ and outrageously partisan. The constituent assembly made it to the daily headlines through publishing who left and why. Hardly, if any representative of the Egyptian elite, or Coptic’s were to be found in the committee due to unsolvable arguments and the unwillingness of the ‘entitled’ committee representatives, who made the word ‘compromise’ sound like a concept from outer-space.  It should be clear, that the elites of Egypt are the ones who provide jobs and ideas. And for the Copts: many of whom are members of the elites as well: all of them are the ones who must be seen as original Egyptians, direct descendants from the Pharaohs.


As a consequence of this act of state-monopolizing, big demonstrations and sit-ins started at the presidential palace after there was no doubt left, that Morsi and his ‘brothers’ obviously had an agenda on their own.. Ittahadya became the new center of resistance. The ‘freely elected forces’ of the new government tried to get rid of criticism and protesters, killing them, torturing them and calling them names, condemning them publicly as ‘thugs’ and ‘thieves’ and ‘infidels’ and ‘drunkards’. The Press was intimidated, religious liberty condemned, human rights subjected to gradually been downgraded to ‘impertinent demands’.


While ‘Cairo’ was burning, Morsi went to Germany for money. Angela Merkel was irritated about the visit. She brushed him off with stating that ‘before any money support could be granted, the Federal Republic of Germany would want to see – firstly: respect for human rights, secondly: freedom of religion and thirdly: freedom of press.’ That had been accompanied by a juicy remark from the News-desk: “In Egypt Morsi gives the Pharaoh and here he playing the Sphinx.”


Things didn’t go well on the economic level. One might recall the debates that alcohol should be banned and tourists shouldn’t wear bikinis on the beaches of Egypt. The penalty came right away: International Tourism Fair in Madrid leaves Egypt empty “We have not signed a single contract for the summer season.” And that had been only one example. To cut it short: a sharp minded witness to the burlesque theater brought it to the point: ‘The Muslimbrothers seem to invent a new economic theory, the “Rabinna Yustor”* school of economics’ [*So Help Me God (to be said like this in a state of despair, expecting the worse to happen)]


*     *     *


June 30th had set an end to that kind of democratic experiment. July 3rd started a new chapter, hopefully started a new chapter.-


‘The call is to all the people when the main demand is for a democratic rule. The call goes to the army, when the main demand is prioritizing on safety.’ This sums up the dilemma, Egypt finds itself caught in right now.


Three years of ‘transition’ without the nation having had neither the time nor the chance to sit back and take a re-creative break, to sit, mind gaming about  feasible objectives and schedule manageable contributions in their capacity as citizens.


Egyptians seem to be suffering under a mental jet-lag. Too much, too fast, not arrived yet..


As soon as the future looks ‘bright’, violent opposition emerges again, making the long awaited, smooth transition to a participatory and fair political system seem impossible.


Consider this: today, Friday November 22nd, pro-Morsi crowds gathered in the proximity of the dispersed sit-ins, in Nasr city near the Rabaa mosque, to mark their loyalty to the danced-out disposed ex-president who is probably sitting in his prison cell hoping to get freed from his Hamas-friends, like in January 2011, wishing to escape the trial that will be bringing to public attention the sediment of political aspirations in the hands and minds of individuals, who flocked together in a clan, in delusional overestimation of their abilities, clueless about the true wisdom of a generous intellect, ignorant about the core quality of the benevolence of the genuine mind of human nature, perverted even in their distorted profession of faith.. This is why so many people want General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to become the next president of Egypt. A pious, warmhearted, intellectually sharp patriot, who happens to be a statesman. –


For now the Muslimbrothers still succeed – against cash one would speculate, to bring demonstrators in the streets. They smash car-windows and frighten passersby to death, throw Molotov cocktails into a tram so the tram is set ablaze, crashes with cars and leave nine people injured, while in the same time they distribute flyers to passersby, elaborating on their peaceful way and their right to protest the ‘military-coup’. Yesterday they smeared “Marty’s University” on the entrance where ‘Al-Azhar’ was written. Setting fire on campus, throwing rocks and destroying what came in their way.- It took a while, until the University had been granted the right, to have police on campus, when needed. – What else can you do?


As we know from the Mohamed Mahmoud commemorate demonstrations on November 19th, Morsi-support youth was found, probably speculating on the mental connection with demonstrators like the humble hero, Ahmed Harara, the man who lost two eyes through gun shots by the police, one in 2011, one in 2012, now fighting for the revolution through tirelessly lobbying for the demands of January 25th, seeing no point in violence.- The pro-Morsi-youth provoked the security forces with Molotov cocktails since the order that day for police posted at the periphery of the protests seemed to have been ‘self-restrain’. Only when the police-officers had been thrown at with stones and Molotov-cocktails later that day, did the police respond with tear-gas and bird-shots to defend themselves and protect public property, here: the Egyptian museum, from assault.


What worth is a political claim which is brought forward through ignorant youth with base and clumsy and perpetual pointless violence on one side, and heinous acts of cold-blooded murders through trained accomplices on the other side? I find it hard to believe, that Lady Ashton still insists on inclusiveness?! – What’s on her mind? Was she on a romantic date with Khairat El-Shater and now the MB can blackmail her? Absurd, right? Well, as absurd as the call for ‘inclusiveness’ at this point. ‘The Muslim Brotherhood has committed grave mistakes during deposed president Mohamed Morsi’s one-year rule’, said the Grandson of Brotherhood’s founder Hassan al-Banna. ‘The state must never become hostage of terrorists’ decided then-chancellor Helmut Schmidt in Germany, when the RAF ( Red Army Fraction, a leftist terrorist group) in the ‘70-ies threatened to kill the president of the syndicate of employers whom they held kidnapped and murdered him in cold blood, once the state did not comply with their demands. Schmidt bore the consequences. – Egypt, the way I see it, is now in a worse position then Germany ever was..


*     *     *


Egypt’s ‘youth’ constitutes roughly 40% of the population males & females between the age of 15 to 30. If you look closely: the demonstrations Egypt is suffering under now are to 90% been acted out by students, vastly MB-sympathizers, mostly from Al-Azhar, the religious authority of Islam before the MB almost successfully tried to deprive it of this position, which it held for centuries. Some of these ‘innocent’ young men and women are ready to commit violence and hence do threaten the much needed recovery process of the state. Without stability, no progress on democracy or ventures in economy can be achieved. CAPMAS announced that the annual inflation rate increased by 11.5 percent in October, while investments are plagued with low-qualified workers with the alarming number of recently closed factories, at which the state offers ‘emergency funds to save what must not be an additional national tragedy, to affected 613 factories, who halted operations. The number of millionaires in Egypt fell by around 3,000 during Morsi’s one-year rule, according to Credit Suisse Research Institute’s (CSR) Global Wealth Report, 2013. Brain-drain is becoming another and very important issue..


“Oppression is the same if not more so, killing is not according to identity, it has become random, the Ministry of Interior did not change and the systems remains unchanged too.” This sentence expresses an opposition-sentiment from yet another spectrum.


How, I keep wondering, is the state supposed to defend itself and move forward, when police officers are being shot in front of their homes or at work in an unpredictable manner, when soldiers are being killed, on daily basis? Is anyone of those hard-core regime-opposing individuals feeling uncomfortable while reading on the morning twitter-feed about killed police-officers or soldiers? – Are those ‘No-To-Police&Army’ sentiments not much better placed in a productive opposition where unified efforts can compete to make acts of security forces arbitrary impossible?


If Egypt wants to escape the traumas of transition and the fallacy of believing an orderly ‘clean-up-the old-regime-first’ approach before they allow a state to emerge and shape in the most desirable way:  it has to make a choice. Simultaneously it has to cut short on acts undermining the state by allowing the security forces to do what is necessary to defend the state against those who aim at its downfall through igniting chaos and attacking its members and citizens with deadly assaults.- At the same time they have to work on self-preservation. Until now the Gulf-allies, Russia, the US, EU and the rest of the international community are still able and willing to keep and seek cooperation. This fortunate circumstances have lead to a favorable rating of Egypt’s economical credibility.- A great political success which is to be attributed to the interim government. It would now be high time to admit that democracy needs more than saying ‘No’ or, what is equally unproductive: apathy and passivity.. It does require a lot of ‘Yes’ followed by ideas and deeds. Egypt must become a national work-shop where every member brings in his/her ability. That will lead to arguments, confrontation and experience which will have a good chance to grow into a democratic understanding. Initiatives on all levels of society, private and governmentally assisted, are, what can trigger awareness and will translate into pushing the democratic process so many people have already died for, into the right direction.


Egypt’s military backed civil interim government probably sought to draw a line under the past, marking a revolution-restart with the – already infamous – provisional memorial on Tahrir. That attempt earned them scornful laughter, cynic remarks or irritation.


It was an untimely gesture for my taste. Yet what irritated me was: that hardly anyone pointed out the fact of its provisional character, hardly anyone found that worth mentioning. – But then again: it triggered a debate. Soon, God willing, we will see the first drafts from the artists, who participate in the competition, introducing their ideas for a worthy and symbolic memorial, which then will be discussed.


“We do not fear, because we know if we fall while defending our country we will be martyrs; we will stand like martyrs in front of God, we are ‘ready to die’ for Egypt” said General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on occasion of the funeral of the conscripts who had been heinously killed one their way home to a few days of well deserved holidays, after having risked their lives while being stationed in Sinai, currently the country’s Achilles heel. –


It is becoming clear by now that Egypt needs to show decisiveness in order to move on. Clear as well is, that nobody with a healthy mind will allow the county and its nation to sink into chaos. What is not clear is: does Egypt have an alternative to urging General Sisi into presidency? Or, to pick up a recent suggestion: is Egypt already lacking the alternative for an immediate transition into a purely civil government and forced to get familiar with the concept of a ‘war-government’?


‘Be the change you want to see’! Let confusion not dominate common sense.




			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
Purifying Mistaken Notions of Reality

						

				On  By davb.deIn Egypt2 Comments			

					


		

			
Emotions were high before the day begun. Today has been the first day of the trial against Mohamed Morsi, the first post revolutionary elected president of Egypt.


The country prepared itself. The Ministry of Interior had ordered 20.000 security forces to protect its citizens from attacks, assaults and all what could be anticipated, taking into account what the defiant pro-Morsi apologists announced.


The nerves were on edge on this first day of the trial of Mohamed Morsi, a man who won the presidency over Egypt through a dismal sentiment, namely a choice between plague & cholera resulting from disgust, disdain and disappointment over the first free elections held in Egypt, which ended in a fateful run-off poll in June 2012 with a participation of eligible voters of 31% as some said, the official turnout was reported to have been 38% ..


The country had been in a dramatic state of ‘national disillusionment’ before this run-off election. The spark of ‘what can all be accomplished’ became less shiny and it occurred to most people, that concepts, drive and organization were in dire demand to transform a country that had accumulated outrageously disproportional, and to some grave extent, incomprehensible ways to administer grievance and the demands of its citizens.


I was shocked when I learned that friends with rather ‘liberal’ and ‘progressive ‘views (not in the strictly political sense) on governance with a somewhat innocent expression on their faces ensured me that they would vote for Mohamed Morsi, the candidate of the Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. This way they – main reason – can vote out the much more detested military candidate Ahmed Shafik, whom they regarded as a mere tool from the ‘military junta’ as the SCAF (Supreme Council of Armed Forces) had been derided by the left-wing revolutionaries and Shafik was a representative of ‘the old regime’. In addition they trusted Morsi’s eloquent and elaborated promises to include Copts, women, youth,  everyone (!) in the new government, should he be elected. ‘The good thing about the Muslim brothers is’ and I heard that a lot back then ‘that they are organized.’


And this is what Egypt needed most. Orderly governance after months of turmoil and constant decline in expectations of what the upheaval from January 25th, that soon turned out to be the day that officially started a revolution, can achieve, based on the facts that make Egypt what it became: a very complex country due to a very heterogeneous population with numerous of social antagonisms.-


I still have a problem with the common narrative “Mohammed Morsi, the first freely elected president of Egypt” – what had been free about the run-off election considering the predicament Egypt was already suffering? In those days there wasn’t ‘anybody’ who looked forward to the run-off elections with enthusiasm. Too much had gone down the drain. Shattered dreams already.. People had been pressured to vote facing a possible penalty of 500.-LE, should they not go to the polling-stations..


When Morsi, the spare-tire, as he had spitefully been labeled by the ones, who couldn’t think of the Muslim Brothers ever to be entrusted with a political leading role, agitated, since the parties favorite candidate had to be replaced, won by a hair thin margin, most of the people of Egypt were ready and willing to submit to the ‘wisdom’ of an eighty year old organization, accepting the outcome as the price they had to pay so that Egypt could at last begin the long awaited democratic era.


‘Public’ consent at the times was:  the Muslim Brothers had been forced into underground thus they enjoyed a widespread ‘we know what it means to suffer suppression’ sentiment and had publicly been perceived as pious charity-workers. Their image by and large shaped over the years, when, to mention just one noticeable example, the Mubarak administration failed to perform its duty in the case of the tragic ferry-boat disaster, where hundreds of people drowned since the ferry boat was overloaded while the president of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Mohamed Hosni Mubarak, had been reported to have watched a football-match, the African cup was at stake (and he didn’t want to be disturbed I speculate). Who came for first rescue and immediate help for the poor people who had been trapped into a trip on a boat, owned by an unscrupulous business man, who, is that needed to be mentioned, never had been held liable for the human catastrophe his company caused? The Muslim Brothers! They brought blankets and soup and helped to the best of their abilities. – And this was by no means a single occurrence.


But their organizational skills had been overestimated. Their commitment to the national well-being tragically misunderstood.


On social media one could follow the ‘Morsi-meter’ which had been set for the first 100 days of his presidency to monitor his performance. What had been more interesting to follow up however were the choirs raising their voices over social media.- A running gag was Morsi on Twitter. When the nation expected a speech, Morsi tweeted, preferably around 1.30 am in the morning..


Today was the day.


Anxieties were high. Protests had been announced. Violence was to be expected. Morsi supporters geared up for mass-rallies to bring back the man, who should show the world what ‘democracy’ was and who has been sitting stubbornly in his ‘undisclosed location’ sending messages about ‘soon victory’ to his loyal followers whose number however shrank day by day. The Morsi supporters expected the man to lead Egypt toward prosperity and fulfill their dream of becoming winners of society, their dream for change of fate. They expected that from a man who drove a country with a history of 5000 years to the verge of disintegration within just one year. To be fair as it became clear in the course of the events: it had been rather the reign of the party leaders who had selected him as their front man. He never really appeared to have been ‘his own man’.


In the greater Cairo area, support marches have begun already following Friday prayers in several districts including Gesr El-Suez, Ain Shams, Nasr City, Shobra, Haram, Mattariya, Mohandiseen, Helwan, and El-Warraq. Yesterday, in Cairo, a march also reached the vicinity of Al-Ittihadeya presidential palace in Heliopolis district. However, the army had barricaded the one-time-headquarters of deposed president Morsi with tanks and barbed wire to prevent protesters from reaching it. A similar march reached Al-Qobba Palace, another presidential house located in Hadayek El-Qobba.  Another pro-Morsi march converged at the Military Intelligence headquarters on Salah Salem road in Cairo, as state news agency MENA reported. Schools had been ‘called off’, the Corniche in Maadi, where the High Court is located was announced to be blocked with security. Many private companies kept their offices close today, I myself followed, once I read that the American University of Cairo officially announced ‘security concerns’.


This afternoon I saw Mohamed Morsi on BBC-world. I had read in the news already about how he insisted on his suit and that he refused the court-trial altogether rejecting it as illegal. Now I saw him how he was walking wearing his suit, in the court-cage next to the other defendants, all dressed in the court-uniform, which Morsi refused in order to underline his what? Pride? If he had pride he would have responded to the people at least, when on June 30th the whole country marched against him, stirring the question if that had been the biggest march in history of mankind. Independence? Hardly. When Lady Ashton visited him in his ‘undisclosed location’ he wasn’t able to answer her questions since he had to confer with his supreme guide.. Yet his moves seemed so attuned with his attitude and self-understanding. Slightly irritated, yet unangry,  if not friendly. – Like on this picture where Obama is carrying Morsi on his arm, heartbreaking if you look at it – Obama with a veil and Morsi dressed up as a baby-girl, smiling curiously and friendly into the world without the concept of harm, being untouched yet from the forces of evil..


When Morsi approached the iron mesh of the court-cage and probably said that sentence which had been quoted a lot “I am the president of Egypt” I felt like ‘with this sentence he didn’t mean any of what it said’.  It was to me as if he was appealing for humanity, as if he were shy to ask for forgiveness. I wasn’t listening to what he said. I just looked at how he moved. It moved me.


I was touched. Not that I pity Morsi. His blame exceeds his capacity. He contributed a lot to what we here in Egypt have to overcome..


Humanity unfolded its more undesirable and dis-integrative facets as the months went by during his despotic reign with gaps deepening. Compassion has become a sentiment reserved mainly for the people of the own camp. Feeling sorry for a political enemy’s mishaps? No energy left!! Rather a good reason to enjoy the own ideological supremacy. Friendships broke off on daily basis, turning best friends into worst enemies once they engaged into political arguments. – People never hated each other openly. The ideological poison the Brotherhood spread throughout the nation with their excellent PR-machines makes every accusation the prosecution will bring forward justified.


During the Morsi tenure, protests set up where people claimed the fulfillment of the promises for which they sacrificed their votes. He didn’t pay his dues. Soon the protests grew into massive demonstrations and developed into violent fights. Instead of respecting the protesters as voters, Morsi and his ministers had dishonored and shamed those citizens calling them undemocratic, remnants of the Mubarak regime, thugs.- Those were ‘ordinary’ citizens. Doctors, engineers, teachers, unemployed, students..


Remembering what Morsi all had ignored and accepted and enforced: people lost their lives during his year through tortures in police detention, through police brutality during demonstrations and mysterious murders. Journalists were prosecuted; it became life-threatening when openly questioning the sole legitimacy of Islam. Even on face-book one was hesitant to post certain religious jokes when it could remotely being seen as insult to Islam, remember ‘Micky&Mini’? Bearded and veiled?? Men grew beards and marked their foreheads with ‘prayer-tattoos’ to demonstrate piety.. – Egypt lost its lighthearted flair. It was true what a newspaper titled in late autumn that year: “The laughter has died out on Egypt”


Back to the opening of the trial: I have read on twitter that 2 journalists, when they saw Morsi, yelled ‘execute him’ .. .- !? After all what Egypt went through until today I would have expected a more differentiated view on how to put justice into practice. Yet.. who can blame them? They might have lost a friend or a relative..


Is what Egypt is now painfully trying to achieve while omitting the decades it took while it was still originating: the adaption of a system from a region of the world, which took more than 150 painful years to reach to the consensus which resulted into what we relate to as a ‘civilized democracy’, compatible with the base instincts of human nature, where some are still genuinely guided by rather simple solutions, if you see the above sentiments as exemplification?-


Undoubtedly can the state shape the concept of proportion when defending its vital interest. Egypt as a nation that is on ‘re-set’ for the course of democracy since July 3rd, continuing where it started on January 25th, as I understand the situation. Morsi after all had the choice to say “No”. He could have thrown himself in front of the supreme guide and beg to leave his office, for the love of Egypt..


For the base human, whose best aspect is their emotional immediacy, a Western legal system would be met with irritation. Are not eventually ‘the tigers of wrath wiser than the horses of instruction’, as William Blake phrased it?


It is not that I think Mohamed Morsi shouldn’t be tried. Even when he was not his own man, he was in charge. It had been in his might to say “No”, when on December 5th protesters had been killed, while all they wanted was to remind him of his promises..


I am absolutely certain that the Egyptian state will find an appropriate way to handle this case. It’s good that the case is postponed. Yet I’m curious how the judiciary will placate the bereaved of the martyrs and the advocates of modern civil society, which has with it a clearly defined rule of law based on an evolutionary grown conception of man.


It has been the helplessness of the human being Mohamed Morsi that touched me. This friendly man, how he respectfully came to the limit of the fence and saying his sentences while his expression seemed almost gentle.. he is either mentally mistaken or a great performer.- In both cases unfit for presidency.


The editors of the late edition of the German governmental news were quick to decide which pictures to show. They didn’t bother to show that picture of the aimlessly wandering man who has missed all the chances he had, to be on the other side of the cage. It seems that the Western governments are settling their minds for ‘thumps down’ and thus show that amount of mercilessness that is important to bear the burden of human error.


 Continue reading “Purifying Mistaken Notions of Reality” →


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
How can a Nation associate with Enemies of the State?

						

				On  By davb.deIn EgyptLeave a comment			

					


		

			



Except for people reluctant to acknowledge to process and twisting terms connected to the concept of democracy, generally referred to as ‘Morsi loyalists’ and except for the groups who deny the legitimacy of the majority vote from June 30th, referred to as ‘Anti-Coup’ movement, leading Egyptians to temporarily put trust into a new interim government, that had been declared on July 3rd, hardly anyone agrees to the demonstrations and protests that are being held out ever since the fortress-like sit-ins in Egypt’s capital were dispersed, even though the numbers of participants are dramatically diminishing, contrary to still some Western media reports.




The interim government does represent the majority of the Egyptian citizens. – The opposition unites radical and obstinate individuals at one end with politically ignorant daydreamers or idealists at the other end.




Who are the Egyptian citizens and what do they expect from the interim government? – First and foremost the Egyptians now, in a state of realizing their diversity and their antagonistic aspirations want but one thing first: security and safety.


              Truly a very comprehendible wish considering the grave impact the more than two and a half years of ongoing change with little interruption of violence and increasing criminal rates brought about.. The ‘national’ mood is tiredness of demonstrations and everybody wants to continue their lives without constant disruptions through demonstrations and terror attacks.


             Wouldn’t just ‘banning’ demonstrations seem the perfect solution for the time being, as one business tycoon a couple of weeks ago suggested on his Twitter account and as some still rather secretly would like to see happen?- No.




In light of the destructive character of the opposition forces at whose moderate end representatives don’t even wish to become part of the political process unless Morsi would be reinstated, ignoring them is the most agreeable way to put the road-map forward. Like when your children won’t want to leave their play-station while you are having the whole family over for discussing the next holiday destination; you just go on and make your decision with who is there.-


Banning demonstrations and protests would leave the interim judiciary open to fierce attack by the opposition, who in the course of the decades is rather well connected and established in the West, where  granting certain basic rights even to opponents became such a self-understanding that upon restriction of one of those rights a reflex-like ‘It’s our duty to prevent dictatorship’ would be poured out onto Egypt, making a transition toward democratic governance even more difficult.


               Everyone surely remembers the days of the dispersal in mid August, where the US and the EU pondered the possibility to send in their ‘freedom forces’.. Moreover: even here in Egypt of course we hear phrases like “The actions of the civil political elite in Egypt have not ceased to amaze since the 3 July coup. Events over the past months have proven that their actions are not based on any moral or value-based system but more an expression of political opportunism and a desire to get rid of Islamists, even if the price is to create a military dictatorship.” (Ahram 19.10.2013 “El-Sisi and Egypt’s bankrupt civil elite) concluding: “Woe is the fate of democracy in Egypt.”   ..Huh!




Does the current development on the rocky road toward democracy not look rather bogged down in light of these debates?


Yes and no. From what I understand: it is ‘progressive’ to question authority. And it’s resentful too. And it lacks trust and it shows little sense for process. You cannot change a country, in which most of its citizens feel abused through corruption, left behind in their unfortunate social environment. It becomes however perfidious to declare ‘bankruptcy’ once the author of this declaration knows about the complexity of the Egyptian society. Articles like that one will have their echo in the West, but won’t impress many locals.




However the image, with which the Western mainstream media jazzed up the Muslimbrotherhood in Egypt as the ‘doyens of democracy’, is getting cracked and will slowly and certainly lead to reconsider biased assessment.


            Alaa Al Aswany, one of Egypt’s most prominent representatives and opinion shaper for the process of political awareness in Egypt, who, as a key-figure gave words and communicated a deep understanding to the outside world, elaborating on what the revolution is about and why it had been inevitable, he had been in Paris last week. Following an invitation from the Institute of the Arab World by Jacques Lang, the former Minister of culture in France, Aswany was there to introduce his latest book “Automobile Club” to the French audience.


             A man who is known for his passionate support of his homeland on the way towards democracy, an author who is renowned for sentences like “The concept of the benevolent dictator, just like the concepts of the noble thief or the honest whore, is no more than a meaningless fantasy.” [On the State of Egypt: A Novelist’s Provocative Reflections].. can anyone seriously assume he would surrender to a ‘military dictatorship’ as the army is being regarded as from the ‘coup’ opponents?!




Back to the October 16th event in Paris. The front row had apparently been occupied from sympathizers of the Egyptian “AntiCoup” movement. The panel was just about to begin, when they raised from their seats and spreading horror.


Obviously they took their frustration about being voted out by the public, on, how they probably see it, Aswany, a ‘traitor of the revolution’.


Alaa Al Aswany recently became a controversial figure since his politically mature views on the development of the Egyptian revolution currently contradict with the more romanticized attitude where ‘the army is always the villain’. Like most of the Egyptian political realists, Aswany sees that for now the army serves to safeguard the transition and merely complied with the majority vote of the streets, when ousting Morsi.


So when the crowd suddenly got off their seats and started shouting and smashing objects at one of the icons of the Egyptian revolution, smashing glass with objects, Jacques Lang from his office couldn’t identify but terrified him to the extent that he fled the building through a back-door and cancelled the symposium..


All this makes me think: Thank You Dear Lord for having this happened in the limelight of the Western world. In the cradle of the European culture with representatives who have the direct cell phone number of Hollande himself.




The questions to how to deal with violent opposition seems to get answers from the grounds and ironically are the perpetrators their own main  obstacle in promoting fragmented and perverted clichés about who and what can be regarded as legitimate. Since Jacques Lang filed a complaint against ‘unknown hooligans’ France shows all but sympathy..


The rest of the world will follow.


Even for Egypt the question of how to phrase the rights for demonstrations in the new constitution can be phrased with more ease.


It is becoming clear that Egypt will have the right to defend itself against its enemies.














			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
A Recollection of The Second Stage of The Egyptian Revolution I First Phase /3

						

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January 29th, 2011




Already last night, when we filled in papers to check into the hotel, the passengers from Cairo confirmed that Egypt had an internet-cut off and mobile services wouldn’t work.. so getting practicalities sorted out first: Land-lines were the only communication left I learned, grateful about this important piece of information.  How to get home, which was about 50 km away from the airport? Certainly the airport-limousines wouldn’t be available, would taxis? How lucky I felt, when I found my land-line number saved on my cell-phone and the ring went through..




To my surprise the airport had been a bulwark of tranquility and normalcy, except for the fact that there were hardly any travelers. You couldn’t tell from the airport personnel that the country was in turmoil! There wasn’t any single one of the emplyees behind the bank-counters or from the airport-security, who radiated even worry; impossible to guess that what took over the streets and squares of Egypt would lead to a change that would trigger a geo-political process, reconsidering and questioning traditional alliances.




         On my way home, I had been picked up from the airport from a fellow-countryman whose bravery stops at nothing if he sees someone who needs his help. On our way we received some calls, warning us to stay in Heliopolis, the district where the airport is located, since ‘thugs were on the highway high jacking people, stealing cars and at least stopping cars and violently try to get hold of the car-owners belongings’ .. the words of caution sure were meant well, but: where to go? Turning around now could be even more dangerous since it lead back to where the alleged thefts and attacks seemed in full swing. Going home seemed the better option. After a short distance we were already on one of the not so famous bypass, where hardly any cars drove. Praise to male orientation skills!


        When my savior drove to my rescue, on his way to the airport he took hitchhikers, something he had been strongly warned against, especially when they appeared to be ‘policemen’ – uniforms had allegedly been stolen and thieves, posing as policemen would abuse the trust, people had, in what they knew as protectors of their safety.-  The hitchhikers were friendly young men who were happy to have found a lift eventually and gave precious advise about bypassing highways.


         We had arrived safely. In retrospect I felt a bit silly about, upon hearing the warnings, to have taken all my rings and bracelets off and hided them in my handbag..  After all: the sun still shone over Egypt as usual, the house looked like a couple of days ago and until now all I knew about the demonstrations which seemed to have developed into a turmoil,  was still so fragmented that I was keen to get the whole picture.




Naturally I ended up switching between CNN, BBC and Al-Jezeera English. You could read it everywhere “Egypt in Turmoil”.


But the tone has shaped. “Down with Mubarak” .. –


Oh Lord!




In the meantime the army had positioned tanks at strategic points. This looked like the government was still hoping to gain control of the wildfire like clashes and crowds, arson and looting.


          Rubber bullets, water cannons and tear-gas and beatings had been brought in as means from police and central security forces to bring the people back to ‘reason’ and disperse the protests. People got killed. That in addition fueled the anger of the families of the ‘martyrs’ and raised the outrage of the protesters to an extent that as surreal as the whole catastrophe looked, as unlikely it seemed to end anytime soon. However: for how long could this go on?




          Today was Saturday. ‘Certainly the whole week one would not be able to go to work’ I thought. How could I have been so ignorant when I saw the first pictures back then, yesterday seemed like light years away, when I had considered the possibility that ‘things’ would calm down rather soon..


Already a curfew had been imposed, from 6 pm to 7 am, yet nobody cared. People went to Tahrir in huge numbers, tens of thousands, unimpressed. In province cities thousands of angry protesters joined the movement and took to the streets. In Port Said the municipal building had been set ablaze, police stations were stormed, detained protesters freed and the stations burned down.


The day before the headquarter of the National Democratic Party had been set on fire which rejoiced the hearts of the protesters and set the stage for much more to come.-


As the actions of the protesters became more and more decisive, the slogans adjusted. ‘Down with Mubarak’, ‘Go away Mubarak’, ‘Mubarak the dictator has fallen’, ‘Mubarak is a tyrant’ ‘Leave, leave, leave’..




Mubarak a tyrant? A dictator?? Mohamed Hosni Mubarak, the president of the Arab Republic of Egypt, suddenly a man, overrun with, how else could one see it, the hate of a whole nation???














 


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
A Recollection of The Second Stage of The Egyptian Revolution I / First Phase / 2

						

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Well as I said: there had been more to it.-


Remembering the strikes in Mahalla since 2006, a province town with a governmental textile-factory where about 20.000 plus workers who, I learned to my surprise, had an active workers union, urged for better labor conditions! Then there had been Kifaya!! A grass-root pressure group that genuinely grew out of a broader dissatisfaction with ‘where things go in Egypt’. They started in the early 2000’s behind closed doors, went viral in 2004 and gained momentum in 2005. The eyes of the politically awakening people in my professional environment sparkled with enthusiasm when they started to talk about ‘Kifaya’. Apparently for the first time since the 1952 revolution the people of Egypt again felt they had a voice.


Kifaya means ‘enough’.  The voice cried for change.-


What did the people of Egypt wanted to change? You can read about Kifaya in Google. Numerous websites provide a very accurate picture, what Kifaya had, and, my personal view, always will be about, until the major demand of  the January 25th revolution, namely social justice, will be met.


Back then I did understand that it was about an increasing discomfort between the rich and their privileges and the working poor.


To name but a few issues: Public schools were free, but in such a deteriorated and wretched condition that everyone who could afford, would sacrifice for sending his children to a private school as they were mushrooming since the early 90’ies.  Housing was another key-problem. You simply couldn’t afford to buy a flat, a prerequisite for leaving your parents home and getting married on reasons of tradition. If you were working in a low-wage job, which constituted and still counts for the overwhelming majority of jobs, getting married was, for a majority of people subjected to waiting for a miracle. Corruption! I could never really see it that way! Knowing what families were expected to represent and what it took to just stay alive and keep going..  taking bribes, or to phrase it politely, asking for commission, had been, in my view, only a somewhat reasonable way ‘to make ends meet’. But as sure as Egypt is the Mother-Of-The-World: some civil ‘servants’ from the upper end of the food chain really made ‘corruption’ sound like a nickname. – However not all governmental employees took bribes. Most public-sector servants had a side-business or a second job.


Among cab-drivers one would find rather often either accountants or teachers; like i.e. in Germany where numerous university graduates from social and political science could be found driving cabs since there were no jobs for them. Only: in Egypt most cab-drivers had their morning shifts in offices or governmental bureaus.


Public schools were and still are ‘something’ that can only make one feel torn between irritation and heartbreak. Thinking to reform the whole surrounding of the complex issue leaves you asking: where to begin? Next to that the school-classes are overcrowded to minimize the facts, and that of course neither the buildings themselves, nor the equipment nor the curriculum are anywhere close to make a child looking forward to go to school, where could all the money be allocated from to improve the base necessities? As well the teachers had a disgracing salary, which lead some teachers to despair but the majority to give private classes; this way they secure themselves and their families a living.


The dynamics of the Egyptian property market should outsmart every seasoned gross-economist. If you expect to find a reliable prediction-tool to assess the economical capability of the citizens, think again. There is no balanced relation between property prices and average income.


And so it goes on..


Anyway. Back to the lounge. In the meantime I had grabbed myself another cup of coffee and was glued to the plasma-screen “BBC-World-live”, now showing what looked like thousands of people, running away from policemen, vehicles from central security forces rolling through the streets, water cans and what looked like tires set on fire..  Journalists seemed puzzled while reporting about the demonstrations. Most of their sentences ended up in question marks. Meanwhile all over Cairo and in all major cities of Egypt one learned about overwhelming chaos that emerged literally everywhere and that dominated the scenes. HELL seemed to have broken loose!! Who would not have had a hard time reporting with accuracy what had been going on? The facts were still confusing.


I lost my appetite for the buffet and sat down. I absolutely didn’t know what to make of all this. Now I started to understand why the flight would probably be postponed. Egypt was obviously under a kind of state-of-emergency.


Before I had to start worrying about where best to get lost in London, an electronically distorted voice on the speakers rang out “passengers for flight MS 778, Egypt Air, please ..”


So it wasn’t that bad after all.. what a relief. Things might look bad in Egypt from the outside but probably the media seemed to make it worse than it actually was.


I got ready, left the lounge and made my way to the departure gate, where boarding had already started. The seat-neighbor from Monday recognized me as well and immediately started the “I told you so” thread; we tried to make jokes but it was one of those moments, where reality requested full attention.  He received contradictory information through his cell-phone – some claimed the internet in Egypt was shut-off and some said it works fine. We promised each other to keep together.


All other passengers as far as I was aware of them, appeared to be somewhat clouded, mood wise, but otherwise occupied with their routine in response to boarding.


About three and a half hours later, above Greece, suddenly a male voice sounded over the speakers: “Ladies and Gentlemen. This is your Captain speaking. We apologize for the inconvenience. We shall have to land unscheduled in Athens in a few minutes time. Please take all your belongings with you. Do not leave any of your hand-baggage in the plane…”


To cut it short: Egypt hadn’t closed its air-space yet, that’s what I thought, but we had a bomb threat, as one of the cabin-stewards had let us know.


We all left the plane and were informed that we would continue our flight later this day. After having waited for approximately 5 hours in front of TV-screens, we were trying to grasp the background on how the situation had deteriorated. Egypt was now live-covered, disrupted only through advertisement-clips. What had started on January 25th as a huge demonstration called ‘Day of Revolt’ for democracy, dignity and social justice had developed into a mass-uprising with the slogan ‘Friday of Anger’ – the first people got killed in the riots and thereafter fury run the rage in the streets.


Oh Egypt..


We had been called upon eventually to check into the airport-hotel. Tourists who were on the flight had been offered to go back to their home countries. I don’t remember how serious some of them considered the offer, but I mind gamed about how I would decide. I couldn’t Continue reading “A Recollection of The Second Stage of The Egyptian Revolution I / First Phase / 2” →


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
A Recollection of The Second Stage of The Egyptian Revolution I / First Phase / 1

						

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London, Heathrow – Business-Class Lounge, 28th January 2011


First Phase


“Excuse me Miss,” I turned to the reception desk, “how come the flight to Cairo hasn’t been announced for boarding yet? Aren’t we due?” Checking on her computer screen the receptionist replied ”We don’t know whether the plane will go there today.” Somewhat startled I dumbly asked “What do you mean ‘We don’t know whether the plane goes to Cairo’”? – “There are some disturbances. Just go back inside the lounge. We’ll inform you as soon as we have more information.”


I was slightly irritated and went back. Suddenly my attention was drawn to the huge plasma-screen and I needed a few seconds to realize that the pictures about a burning place with fire, armed soldiers shooting and people running around I was looking at had been our Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo. – Oh no. Please, dear Lord, let that not be true! ..


On my way to London on January 24th I had been sitting next to a business man from Mohandeseen with an engineering consultancy office. We came to talk about this and that, and as well we pondered about the possibility what ‘the demonstration’, which had been in the air for a few weeks now, will bring about. From him I learned that emails had been send to raise awareness and ensure participation!


That was new to me. I learned about it through my microcosmic office, all the young people were fantasying about a ‘revolution’ and were very enthusiastic about 25th January, when a big demonstration should take place. The specific date had been chosen as it was a day to celebrate the police, officially ‘National Police Day’.


Would make sense, is what I thought. But of course: I didn’t believe it would ever come to that.


So when my seat-neighbor told me about the bulk of emails he had all received I thought ‘So even the establishment?’ since he obviously belonged to the upper class; he had the means to pay for business-class, wore stylish and expensive shoes, his whole out-fit and appearance left no doubt about his privileged, social status.


So I got the idea, that I certainly should try my best to get a glance at the news the next day. –


Thinking about that a real demonstration could take place in Cairo, a mass-demonstration, the kind I was used to back then in Berlin, where ten to twenty thousand people took to the streets in the 80-ies, was an outlandish idea. But..


The youth is always rebellious and overambitious. I myself know that oh so well. I had been so  young myself. I even, at a certain point of political activism in Germany, … I was willing to die for a course!! Well..


As for the Egyptian youth who brought the mass-demonstration idea to my screen in August and with increasing fervor in late September 2010 I thought of it as ‘something, one might should have to go through’ – but left the matter otherwise aside. After all: nothing really was hinting at the possibility of the demonstration becoming ‘talk-of-the-town’, all I personally expected was disruption and people staying at home since they would be scared.  The daily life went on taking all the energy to get things going, people went places, got married, went to parties and worried about to upgrade from i-phone 4 to i-phone 4S. Besides, the ‘girls’ (in their 20ies) never really spoke about what they would demonstrate against. A few weak remarks here and there.


I was thinking what could possibly be behind?


Still the Gamal Mubarak succession question seemed to absorb some; I thought the question was already settled since it vanished from small-talk. Remind you: Mubarak, in dire need to present a successor since his poor state of health started to trigger speculations about ‘Who would do the job if the old man dies?’. Yet it seemed to me that Mubarak realized that literally nobody in Egypt would support his son. Numerous discussions and debates had been held about the matter secretly and openly. Someone said about freedom of speech in Egypt in the late 2000’s ‘You can talk about anything, but we don’t have freedom of speech.’


He had a point. Some journalists got arrested ‘for spreading false rumors’ about Hosni Mubarak’s state of health.


So yes. The expectation from the side of the Egyptian people to be presented with a successor was all so comprehensible. After all, Mubarak did not have a vice president and facts about his cancer leaked and started to worry the political decision-makers and the business community.


As well: as of 2005 a growing public discontent with the reign of the Mubarak government spread through the country. Hardly anybody with intellectual standing, who was involved and exposed to the community of normal citizens, withhold at times and according to their temper rather angry insults and accusations against president Hosni Mubarak.


All I could think then was: why are you so fiercely opposing a government that brings increasing prosperity to a vast majority, as I saw it, to the country? New jobs, great salaries, admirable projects like ‘Smart Village’ mushroomed within a comparatively short time. As of the early 2000’s the streets of Cairo had more and more posh shops opening, elegant offices, a lot of new buildings, household good could be purchased with installments so people had air-conditions, new cars and every new season a new mobile. There were times, when my staff had better mobiles than I myself! Travelling abroad seemed to have become a casual summer pass-time. So in my logic I thought: the better things become the more aggressive people get, since they discover that what they already have isn’t enough..


Yet: there was more to it.


			
					

	




			
				


			

		

			
Is the Western media-fury on Egypt back?

						

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It’s irritating to read the headlines from Germany today on the events that marked October 6th,  traditionally a celebration day for the 1973 war and usually ignored by the majority of the Egyptian people, yet this year highly charged with positive  expectations.


As for the ‘Anti-Coup-Alliance’ and ‘pro-Morsi’ movement,  as the disappointed Morsi loyalists call themselves, they well in advance called for marches throughout the country to gain back, what they see is the legitimate president, Mohamed Morsi.


As for the Egyptian people: celebrating October 6th on Tahrir and elsewhere felt like a cornerstone of marking again the spirit of national unity, still fragile, celebrating that the ‘ghosts from the traumatic past’ have been almost chased away.


The stronger, the interim government establishes itself, the more defiant of facts and processing governance the  ‘Anti-Coup-Alliance’ and ‘pro-Morsi’ movement  became.


The vast majority of Egyptians, as represented in the interim government are working 24/7 to find a way to get the ‘desirable’ in line with the ‘possible’.


A tremendously difficult undertaking. They have to take into account the whole and partly antagonistic demands of the people, whose unanimous spirit for a change of governance of ousted president Mohamed Morsi  through a democratic system is all there is. Other than that views are frequently antagonistic and the question arises: how can ‘this’ bring about a constitution serving all Egyptians, inclusively?


The biggest obstacle and challenge for the Egyptian people had been the press, mainly the foreign media.


Through constant ignorance of Morsi-reign misdemeanor and outright betrayal of trust from the voters, who back then held possible he would indeed make sure that government from now on will be inclusive and represent Youth, women, Copts and wide civil participation, Mohamed Morsi got the crucial amount of votes in the run-off election since people abhorred the other remaining election candidate.


Soon it became obvious that Morsi was all but a representative of the Egyptian people and his main focus, while in office, was to serve the interests of the Muslimbrotherhood, who he vowed to have left.


Did the foreign press notice? No. Not really.


Only when, as a means of despair in light of this outrageous betrayal some courageous activists, most of whom are normal citizens – went to Tahrier, the second sit-in, an other one had grown at the presidential palace.  Demonstrations on daily basis, people got killed, tear gassed and wounded.


Did the foreign press notice? Well. A little bit.


Only when the sit-in at the presidential palace grew so strong and some people succeeded to draw attention to the fact that members of the Coptic community faced unprecedented hardships through the forces of arbitrary, when journalists, who uttered their disenchantment had been detained and, as we learned, had been tortured, when people had been found killed.. Only then the foreign press started to open one of both obviously closed eyes, half .


The effect had been that Mohamed Morsi had been reprimanded from the Western governments. I related to the EU and Germany.


While Cairo ‘was burning’ in early December 2012, Morsi went to Germany. I still remember my happiness, when Angela Merkel brushed his high expectations for financial support for the shattered economy off with a few words . ‘Traditionally, we have good relations with Egypt, yet freedom of speech, freedom of religion and freedom of press must not be violated. ‘


But no Western government went beyond speech in assisting the Egyptian people on their way to achieve what they fought for in the days of January 25th.


Soon it became a question whether the West seemed even in agreement with the chaos, that slowly  covered Egypt in every corner of its vast extent.


To come back to yesterday.


With the new interim government in full swing, working towards a consensual constitution, arranging for the economy to recover the celebration of October 6th became a symbolic act.


If it were not for the Egyptian Army, Egypt would have slided into an unrecoverable state of disorder, malfunction and standstill. Some say, Egypt had been at the verge of a civil-war. Maybe.


Fact is: the army supported a grass-root movement, Tamarod (=Rebel) that succeeded to collect 22+ million signatures within a few weeks time. The aim was to make Morsi understand, that his politics is objected by far more people, than the result of the number of people who voted for him in the run-off elections represented. Remind you: the participation had been merely 38%! [That’s why until today I find it difficult to related to Mohamed Morsi  as ‘democratically elected president’]


Seeing the headlines coming from Germany makes me wonder: are we relating to the same events?


Not one media-representative reported on the somewhat folklorist festivities on Tahrir and the speeches held.


But everyone plunged into the very sad and very calculated acts of ‘public disturbance’ which led to the avoidable death of about 50 human beings, who had been mentally dragged into the illusion, that Mohamed Morsi is still the legitimate president of Egypt, and the October 6th celebration would in their view provide an excellent chance to draw attention to this bizarre claim.


The people of Egypt have decided to join their fate with the assistance of its military leader as long as the state does not provide structures that allow to implore legal instruments. Again: Egypt still does not have the judiciary means to communicate apprehension and disdain for seemingly unjust state-action with the law.


What we witness really is history in the making.


Open your eyes and try to see for yourself.


The truth is hardly pure and never simple.~